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Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-10

Market icon
Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-10

Brad Lander 81%

Dan Goldman 16%

Alexa Avilés 2.5%

Cameron Kasky 2.4%

Polymarket
NOVO

Brad Lander 81%

Dan Goldman 16%

Alexa Avilés 2.5%

Cameron Kasky 2.4%

Polymarket
NOVO

Brad Lander

$1,858 Vol.

81%

Dan Goldman

$1,113 Vol.

16%

Alexa Avilés

$834 Vol.

3%

Cameron Kasky

$619 Vol.

2%

Yuh-Line Niou

$557 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus strongly favors NYC Comptroller Brad Lander at 80.5% to win New York's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting his established polling lead from a September 2025 survey (up 19 points over incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman) and fresh momentum from endorsements like 32BJ SEIU on April 2 and OurRevolution. A Supreme Court ruling on March 3 finalized maps after redistricting battles, locking in the progressive challenger versus the two-term incumbent. Recent tensions over "dark money" pledges and PAC influence have intensified, with Lander emphasizing grassroots funding while Goldman secures backing from clubs like Independent Neighborhood Democrats. Lower probabilities for Alexa Avilés, Cameron Kasky, and Yuh-Line Niou underscore a consolidated Lander-Goldman contest, though fundraising and further endorsements could shift dynamics ahead of the closed primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,980
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus strongly favors NYC Comptroller Brad Lander at 80.5% to win New York's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting his established polling lead from a September 2025 survey (up 19 points over incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman) and fresh momentum from endorsements like 32BJ SEIU on April 2 and OurRevolution. A Supreme Court ruling on March 3 finalized maps after redistricting battles, locking in the progressive challenger versus the two-term incumbent. Recent tensions over "dark money" pledges and PAC influence have intensified, with Lander emphasizing grassroots funding while Goldman secures backing from clubs like Independent Neighborhood Democrats. Lower probabilities for Alexa Avilés, Cameron Kasky, and Yuh-Line Niou underscore a consolidated Lander-Goldman contest, though fundraising and further endorsements could shift dynamics ahead of the closed primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,980
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-10" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brad Lander" at 81%, followed by "Dan Goldman" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-10" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-10," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-10" is "Brad Lander" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Goldman" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-10" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.