Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 57%, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing the opposition Tisza Party ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—recent surveys indicate Tisza widening its lead amid voter dissatisfaction and allegations of ruling party intimidation tactics. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, reflecting intensified U.S. diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration demanding his removal for negotiation progress, coupled with ongoing blackouts, protests, and economic woes that Cuba has firmly rejected altering. Lower odds for Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu (5.9%) stem from persistent coalition strains and no polling boost from recent Iran tensions, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% reflects Labour Party internal discontent and looming leadership challenges ahead of May local elections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPróximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?
Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?
Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 57%
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%
Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 5.9%
Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%
$3,212,745 Vol.
$3,212,745 Vol.
Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria
57%
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba
16%
Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel
6%
Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido
5%
Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão
3%
Putin - Presidente da Rússia
2%
Petro - Presidente da Colômbia
1%
Nenhum antes de 2027
1%
Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia
1%
Trump - Presidente dos EUA
1%
Macron - Presidente da França
1%
Abbas - Presidente da Palestina
1%
Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC
1%
Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha
1%
Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela
1%
Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia
1%
Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil
1%
Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França
1%
al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria
1%
Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália
<1%
Newsom - Governador da Califórnia
<1%
Merz - Chanceler alemão
<1%
Sheinbaum - Presidente do México
<1%
Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte
<1%
Milei - Presidente da Argentina
<1%
Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 57%
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%
Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 5.9%
Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%
$3,212,745 Vol.
$3,212,745 Vol.
Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria
57%
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba
16%
Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel
6%
Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido
5%
Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão
3%
Putin - Presidente da Rússia
2%
Petro - Presidente da Colômbia
1%
Nenhum antes de 2027
1%
Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia
1%
Trump - Presidente dos EUA
1%
Macron - Presidente da França
1%
Abbas - Presidente da Palestina
1%
Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC
1%
Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha
1%
Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela
1%
Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia
1%
Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil
1%
Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França
1%
al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria
1%
Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália
<1%
Newsom - Governador da Califórnia
<1%
Merz - Chanceler alemão
<1%
Sheinbaum - Presidente do México
<1%
Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte
<1%
Milei - Presidente da Argentina
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 57%, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing the opposition Tisza Party ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—recent surveys indicate Tisza widening its lead amid voter dissatisfaction and allegations of ruling party intimidation tactics. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, reflecting intensified U.S. diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration demanding his removal for negotiation progress, coupled with ongoing blackouts, protests, and economic woes that Cuba has firmly rejected altering. Lower odds for Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu (5.9%) stem from persistent coalition strains and no polling boost from recent Iran tensions, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% reflects Labour Party internal discontent and looming leadership challenges ahead of May local elections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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