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Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

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Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 6.5%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,160,275 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 6.5%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,160,275 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria

$23,349 Vol.

57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$16,543 Vol.

16%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel

$893,851 Vol.

7%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido

$557,749 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão

$348,626 Vol.

3%

Putin - Presidente da Rússia

$351,291 Vol.

2%

Petro - Presidente da Colômbia

$13,100 Vol.

1%

Nenhum antes de 2027

$10,313 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia

$11,698 Vol.

1%

Trump - Presidente dos EUA

$205,775 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente da França

$68,230 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente da Palestina

$58,400 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC

$39,702 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha

$11,556 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela

$24,760 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil

$40,366 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França

$55,445 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria

$28,433 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia

$76,335 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália

$58,914 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Governador da Califórnia

$113,406 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Chanceler alemão

$29,045 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidente do México

$64,605 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte

$25,075 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente da Argentina

$36,831 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus positions Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the frontrunner at 57% to exit power before 2027, driven by polls showing the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, ahead ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—just weeks away—which could end Orbán's 15-year rule amid EU frustrations over his Ukraine aid blockades and campaign clashes over the war. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, reflecting intensified U.S. pressure under the Trump administration demanding his removal in ongoing bilateral talks, compounded by nationwide blackouts and economic crises fueling speculation on regime shifts. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trades at 6.5% amid efforts to pass a state budget and avert snap elections before the scheduled October 2026 vote, despite ongoing Iran and Gaza conflicts yielding no poll gains and domestic calls for early polls. Lower odds on others underscore these as primary risks, with "None before 2027" at just 1.4%.

Trader consensus positions Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the frontrunner at 57% to exit power before 2027, driven by polls showing the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, ahead ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—just weeks away—which could end Orbán's 15-year rule amid EU frustrations over his Ukraine aid blockades and campaign clashes over the war. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, reflecting intensified U.S. pressure under the Trump administration demanding his removal in ongoing bilateral talks, compounded by nationwide blackouts and economic crises fueling speculation on regime shifts. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trades at 6.5% amid efforts to pass a state budget and avert snap elections before the scheduled October 2026 vote, despite ongoing Iran and Gaza conflicts yielding no poll gains and domestic calls for early polls. Lower odds on others underscore these as primary risks, with "None before 2027" at just 1.4%.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus positions Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the frontrunner at 57% to exit power before 2027, driven by polls showing the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, ahead ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—just weeks away—which could end Orbán's 15-year rule amid EU frustrations over his Ukraine aid blockades and campaign clashes over the war. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, reflecting intensified U.S. pressure under the Trump administration demanding his removal in ongoing bilateral talks, compounded by nationwide blackouts and economic crises fueling speculation on regime shifts. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trades at 6.5% amid efforts to pass a state budget and avert snap elections before the scheduled October 2026 vote, despite ongoing Iran and Gaza conflicts yielding no poll gains and domestic calls for early polls. Lower odds on others underscore these as primary risks, with "None before 2027" at just 1.4%.

Trader consensus positions Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the frontrunner at 57% to exit power before 2027, driven by polls showing the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, ahead ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—just weeks away—which could end Orbán's 15-year rule amid EU frustrations over his Ukraine aid blockades and campaign clashes over the war. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, reflecting intensified U.S. pressure under the Trump administration demanding his removal in ongoing bilateral talks, compounded by nationwide blackouts and economic crises fueling speculation on regime shifts. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trades at 6.5% amid efforts to pass a state budget and avert snap elections before the scheduled October 2026 vote, despite ongoing Iran and Gaza conflicts yielding no poll gains and domestic calls for early polls. Lower odds on others underscore these as primary risks, with "None before 2027" at just 1.4%.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 57%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" has generated $3.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.