Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (93.5¢), driven by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites—the latest direct escalation following Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Iran downplayed the strikes as limited and causing minimal damage, vowing a response but showing restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. Persistent proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, coupled with Netanyahu's vows of sustained operations against Iranian threats, signal no near-term ceasefire or withdrawal. While exceeding 90%, odds could shift via unexpected diplomacy, such as U.S.-brokered talks, a Gaza truce spilling over, or verified Iranian concessions reducing escalation risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAção militar até 31 de março 94%
31 de março 2.7%
30 de março 1.6%
29 de março 1.4%
$2,539,692 Vol.
$2,539,692 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26 de março
<1%
27 de março
<1%
28 de março
1%
29 de março
1%
30 de março
2%
31 de março
3%
Ação militar até 31 de março
94%
Ação militar até 31 de março 94%
31 de março 2.7%
30 de março 1.6%
29 de março 1.4%
$2,539,692 Vol.
$2,539,692 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26 de março
$326,382 Vol.
<1%
27 de março
$326,034 Vol.
<1%
28 de março
$304,962 Vol.
1%
29 de março
$265,042 Vol.
1%
30 de março
$273,643 Vol.
2%
31 de março
$359,376 Vol.
3%
Ação militar até 31 de março
$551,632 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (93.5¢), driven by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites—the latest direct escalation following Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Iran downplayed the strikes as limited and causing minimal damage, vowing a response but showing restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. Persistent proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, coupled with Netanyahu's vows of sustained operations against Iranian threats, signal no near-term ceasefire or withdrawal. While exceeding 90%, odds could shift via unexpected diplomacy, such as U.S.-brokered talks, a Gaza truce spilling over, or verified Iranian concessions reducing escalation risks.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,539,692Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (93.5¢), driven by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites—the latest direct escalation following Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Iran downplayed the strikes as limited and causing minimal damage, vowing a response but showing restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. Persistent proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, coupled with Netanyahu's vows of sustained operations against Iranian threats, signal no near-term ceasefire or withdrawal. While exceeding 90%, odds could shift via unexpected diplomacy, such as U.S.-brokered talks, a Gaza truce spilling over, or verified Iranian concessions reducing escalation risks.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,539,692Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (93.5¢), driven by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites—the latest direct escalation following Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Iran downplayed the strikes as limited and causing minimal damage, vowing a response but showing restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. Persistent proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, coupled with Netanyahu's vows of sustained operations against Iranian threats, signal no near-term ceasefire or withdrawal. While exceeding 90%, odds could shift via unexpected diplomacy, such as U.S.-brokered talks, a Gaza truce spilling over, or verified Iranian concessions reducing escalation risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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