Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) advances in southern Lebanon have driven trader consensus to a 56.5% implied probability for crossing the Litani River by June 30, reflecting incremental ground operations clearing Hezbollah positions near the border. Recent airstrikes and limited incursions, including operations up to several kilometers north, signal IDF intent to enforce UN Resolution 1701 by pushing militants beyond the Litani, amid stalled US-mediated ceasefire talks. Hezbollah retaliatory rocket fire has intensified exchanges but not halted IDF momentum, while diplomatic signals from Israel emphasize operational flexibility absent de-escalation. This closely contested outlook hinges on potential escalation or breakthroughs in negotiations before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$57,195 Vol.
$57,195 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$57,195 Vol.
$57,195 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) advances in southern Lebanon have driven trader consensus to a 56.5% implied probability for crossing the Litani River by June 30, reflecting incremental ground operations clearing Hezbollah positions near the border. Recent airstrikes and limited incursions, including operations up to several kilometers north, signal IDF intent to enforce UN Resolution 1701 by pushing militants beyond the Litani, amid stalled US-mediated ceasefire talks. Hezbollah retaliatory rocket fire has intensified exchanges but not halted IDF momentum, while diplomatic signals from Israel emphasize operational flexibility absent de-escalation. This closely contested outlook hinges on potential escalation or breakthroughs in negotiations before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$57,195Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) advances in southern Lebanon have driven trader consensus to a 56.5% implied probability for crossing the Litani River by June 30, reflecting incremental ground operations clearing Hezbollah positions near the border. Recent airstrikes and limited incursions, including operations up to several kilometers north, signal IDF intent to enforce UN Resolution 1701 by pushing militants beyond the Litani, amid stalled US-mediated ceasefire talks. Hezbollah retaliatory rocket fire has intensified exchanges but not halted IDF momentum, while diplomatic signals from Israel emphasize operational flexibility absent de-escalation. This closely contested outlook hinges on potential escalation or breakthroughs in negotiations before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$57,195Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) advances in southern Lebanon have driven trader consensus to a 56.5% implied probability for crossing the Litani River by June 30, reflecting incremental ground operations clearing Hezbollah positions near the border. Recent airstrikes and limited incursions, including operations up to several kilometers north, signal IDF intent to enforce UN Resolution 1701 by pushing militants beyond the Litani, amid stalled US-mediated ceasefire talks. Hezbollah retaliatory rocket fire has intensified exchanges but not halted IDF momentum, while diplomatic signals from Israel emphasize operational flexibility absent de-escalation. This closely contested outlook hinges on potential escalation or breakthroughs in negotiations before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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