Amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict since late February 2026, Iran has conducted multiple verified strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil transit, effectively halting most shipping traffic. The most recent development occurred today, April 4, when Iranian state media reported a successful drone attack on an Israel-affiliated tanker, igniting the vessel and prompting international navigation alerts. Prior hits include US-linked logistics ships and a Qatar-leased tanker last week, alongside Revolutionary Guard operations targeting Israeli-flagged carriers. Traders weigh ongoing Iranian maritime capabilities against potential US naval escorts or Oman-mediated protocols to monitor traffic. Houthi threats to resume Red Sea attacks add parallel risks, with diplomatic talks and military posturing as key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO Irão tem como alvo com sucesso o transporte em...?
O Irão tem como alvo com sucesso o transporte em...?
$120,680 Vol.
31 mar 2026
March 31
4%
$120,680 Vol.
March 31
$7,592 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict since late February 2026, Iran has conducted multiple verified strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil transit, effectively halting most shipping traffic. The most recent development occurred today, April 4, when Iranian state media reported a successful drone attack on an Israel-affiliated tanker, igniting the vessel and prompting international navigation alerts. Prior hits include US-linked logistics ships and a Qatar-leased tanker last week, alongside Revolutionary Guard operations targeting Israeli-flagged carriers. Traders weigh ongoing Iranian maritime capabilities against potential US naval escorts or Oman-mediated protocols to monitor traffic. Houthi threats to resume Red Sea attacks add parallel risks, with diplomatic talks and military posturing as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$120,680Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict since late February 2026, Iran has conducted multiple verified strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil transit, effectively halting most shipping traffic. The most recent development occurred today, April 4, when Iranian state media reported a successful drone attack on an Israel-affiliated tanker, igniting the vessel and prompting international navigation alerts. Prior hits include US-linked logistics ships and a Qatar-leased tanker last week, alongside Revolutionary Guard operations targeting Israeli-flagged carriers. Traders weigh ongoing Iranian maritime capabilities against potential US naval escorts or Oman-mediated protocols to monitor traffic. Houthi threats to resume Red Sea attacks add parallel risks, with diplomatic talks and military posturing as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$120,680Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict since late February 2026, Iran has conducted multiple verified strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil transit, effectively halting most shipping traffic. The most recent development occurred today, April 4, when Iranian state media reported a successful drone attack on an Israel-affiliated tanker, igniting the vessel and prompting international navigation alerts. Prior hits include US-linked logistics ships and a Qatar-leased tanker last week, alongside Revolutionary Guard operations targeting Israeli-flagged carriers. Traders weigh ongoing Iranian maritime capabilities against potential US naval escorts or Oman-mediated protocols to monitor traffic. Houthi threats to resume Red Sea attacks add parallel risks, with diplomatic talks and military posturing as key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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