Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched their first missile attack on Israel on March 28, 2026—the latest escalation in the month-long 2026 Iran War sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities. Iran has retaliated with repeated drone and ballistic missile barrages at Israeli cities and military targets, including cluster munitions, while Israeli forces conducted fresh strikes on Tehran infrastructure and Esfahan submarine development centers as recently as March 25-27. Tehran vows "zero restraint" against further hits, amid US deliberations on deploying up to 10,000 additional troops. No ceasefire talks or de-escalation signals have materialized, leaving traders focused on proxy involvement, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and potential multi-front expansion.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
85%
April 2
81%
April 3
79%
April 4
78%
April 5
76%
April 6
75%
April 7
74%
April 8
76%
April 9
73%
April 10
74%
$1,595 Vol.
April 1
$576 Vol.
85%
April 2
$250 Vol.
81%
April 3
$117 Vol.
79%
April 4
$59 Vol.
78%
April 5
$19 Vol.
76%
April 6
$31 Vol.
75%
April 7
$164 Vol.
74%
April 8
$180 Vol.
76%
April 9
$113 Vol.
73%
April 10
$84 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched their first missile attack on Israel on March 28, 2026—the latest escalation in the month-long 2026 Iran War sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities. Iran has retaliated with repeated drone and ballistic missile barrages at Israeli cities and military targets, including cluster munitions, while Israeli forces conducted fresh strikes on Tehran infrastructure and Esfahan submarine development centers as recently as March 25-27. Tehran vows "zero restraint" against further hits, amid US deliberations on deploying up to 10,000 additional troops. No ceasefire talks or de-escalation signals have materialized, leaving traders focused on proxy involvement, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and potential multi-front expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$1,595Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched their first missile attack on Israel on March 28, 2026—the latest escalation in the month-long 2026 Iran War sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities. Iran has retaliated with repeated drone and ballistic missile barrages at Israeli cities and military targets, including cluster munitions, while Israeli forces conducted fresh strikes on Tehran infrastructure and Esfahan submarine development centers as recently as March 25-27. Tehran vows "zero restraint" against further hits, amid US deliberations on deploying up to 10,000 additional troops. No ceasefire talks or de-escalation signals have materialized, leaving traders focused on proxy involvement, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and potential multi-front expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,595Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched their first missile attack on Israel on March 28, 2026—the latest escalation in the month-long 2026 Iran War sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities. Iran has retaliated with repeated drone and ballistic missile barrages at Israeli cities and military targets, including cluster munitions, while Israeli forces conducted fresh strikes on Tehran infrastructure and Esfahan submarine development centers as recently as March 25-27. Tehran vows "zero restraint" against further hits, amid US deliberations on deploying up to 10,000 additional troops. No ceasefire talks or de-escalation signals have materialized, leaving traders focused on proxy involvement, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and potential multi-front expansion.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions