Amid the US-Israel war with Iran now in its fourth week, nuclear diplomacy remains stalled after February 2026 talks in Oman where mediators reported Iran's offer of zero enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, but rejection of US demands to destroy facilities and ship material abroad led to escalation following a missed 60-day deadline. IAEA's February 27 report verified a pre-strike stockpile of 441kg at 60% purity—enough for multiple weapons if further enriched—with post-attack locations uncertain at sites like Isfahan and no radiation leaks detected. The Trump administration's recent 15-point ceasefire proposal demands full nuclear abandonment, which Iran is reviewing amid ongoing airstrikes, though President Trump's March 28 statements emphasize regime pressure over imminent agreement, leaving voluntary surrender prospects dim ahead of potential ground operations to secure stockpiles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
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$31,534 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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June 30
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December 31
35%
$31,534 Vol.
April 30
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11%
June 30
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December 31
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war with Iran now in its fourth week, nuclear diplomacy remains stalled after February 2026 talks in Oman where mediators reported Iran's offer of zero enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, but rejection of US demands to destroy facilities and ship material abroad led to escalation following a missed 60-day deadline. IAEA's February 27 report verified a pre-strike stockpile of 441kg at 60% purity—enough for multiple weapons if further enriched—with post-attack locations uncertain at sites like Isfahan and no radiation leaks detected. The Trump administration's recent 15-point ceasefire proposal demands full nuclear abandonment, which Iran is reviewing amid ongoing airstrikes, though President Trump's March 28 statements emphasize regime pressure over imminent agreement, leaving voluntary surrender prospects dim ahead of potential ground operations to secure stockpiles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$31,534Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war with Iran now in its fourth week, nuclear diplomacy remains stalled after February 2026 talks in Oman where mediators reported Iran's offer of zero enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, but rejection of US demands to destroy facilities and ship material abroad led to escalation following a missed 60-day deadline. IAEA's February 27 report verified a pre-strike stockpile of 441kg at 60% purity—enough for multiple weapons if further enriched—with post-attack locations uncertain at sites like Isfahan and no radiation leaks detected. The Trump administration's recent 15-point ceasefire proposal demands full nuclear abandonment, which Iran is reviewing amid ongoing airstrikes, though President Trump's March 28 statements emphasize regime pressure over imminent agreement, leaving voluntary surrender prospects dim ahead of potential ground operations to secure stockpiles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,534Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel war with Iran now in its fourth week, nuclear diplomacy remains stalled after February 2026 talks in Oman where mediators reported Iran's offer of zero enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, but rejection of US demands to destroy facilities and ship material abroad led to escalation following a missed 60-day deadline. IAEA's February 27 report verified a pre-strike stockpile of 441kg at 60% purity—enough for multiple weapons if further enriched—with post-attack locations uncertain at sites like Isfahan and no radiation leaks detected. The Trump administration's recent 15-point ceasefire proposal demands full nuclear abandonment, which Iran is reviewing amid ongoing airstrikes, though President Trump's March 28 statements emphasize regime pressure over imminent agreement, leaving voluntary surrender prospects dim ahead of potential ground operations to secure stockpiles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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