Trader consensus favors 1250+ tornadoes in the US for 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by recent record-breaking seasons that exceed the long-term NOAA climatological average of about 1,200 annually. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) preliminary data shows 2024 with over 2,000 tornadoes—the highest on record—fueled by exceptional atmospheric instability from high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear in Tornado Alley, linked to warmer Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures. Early 2025 counts already surpass 1,200 amid lingering La Niña influences that enhance severe thunderstorm potential. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving ENSO patterns, upcoming SPC spring outlooks will refine expectations for peak April–June activity, the period accounting for ~70% of annual totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
1250+ 41%
950–999 18.1%
<950 18%
1000–1049 15%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<950
18%
950–999
18%
1000–1049
15%
1050–1099
16%
1100–1149
11%
1150–1199
11%
1200–1249
18%
1250+
41%
1250+ 41%
950–999 18.1%
<950 18%
1000–1049 15%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$0 Vol.
18%
950–999
$0 Vol.
18%
1000–1049
$0 Vol.
15%
1050–1099
$0 Vol.
16%
1100–1149
$0 Vol.
11%
1150–1199
$0 Vol.
11%
1200–1249
$0 Vol.
18%
1250+
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus favors 1250+ tornadoes in the US for 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by recent record-breaking seasons that exceed the long-term NOAA climatological average of about 1,200 annually. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) preliminary data shows 2024 with over 2,000 tornadoes—the highest on record—fueled by exceptional atmospheric instability from high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear in Tornado Alley, linked to warmer Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures. Early 2025 counts already surpass 1,200 amid lingering La Niña influences that enhance severe thunderstorm potential. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving ENSO patterns, upcoming SPC spring outlooks will refine expectations for peak April–June activity, the period accounting for ~70% of annual totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
Jan 10, 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus favors 1250+ tornadoes in the US for 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by recent record-breaking seasons that exceed the long-term NOAA climatological average of about 1,200 annually. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) preliminary data shows 2024 with over 2,000 tornadoes—the highest on record—fueled by exceptional atmospheric instability from high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear in Tornado Alley, linked to warmer Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures. Early 2025 counts already surpass 1,200 amid lingering La Niña influences that enhance severe thunderstorm potential. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving ENSO patterns, upcoming SPC spring outlooks will refine expectations for peak April–June activity, the period accounting for ~70% of annual totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0Data de Término
Jan 10, 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 1250+ tornadoes in the US for 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by recent record-breaking seasons that exceed the long-term NOAA climatological average of about 1,200 annually. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) preliminary data shows 2024 with over 2,000 tornadoes—the highest on record—fueled by exceptional atmospheric instability from high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear in Tornado Alley, linked to warmer Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures. Early 2025 counts already surpass 1,200 amid lingering La Niña influences that enhance severe thunderstorm potential. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving ENSO patterns, upcoming SPC spring outlooks will refine expectations for peak April–June activity, the period accounting for ~70% of annual totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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