Trader consensus favors a Tokyo high of 18°C at 28% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C and 16°C, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild late-March conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region. Historical data shows average highs around 15-17°C for March 27, but current model guidance highlights warmer low-level advection from the Pacific, tempered by potential sea breeze moderation and thin cloud cover. Differentiating factors include short-range uncertainty in frontal timing—earlier onshore flow could cap at 16°C, while delayed clearing boosts to 18°C—with JMA's next 12-hour update likely to sharpen odds amid typical spring variability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio em 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio em 27 de março?
18°C 28%
17°C 21%
16°C 19%
19°C 14%
11°C ou menos
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
19%
17°C
21%
18°C
28%
19°C
14%
20°C
8%
21°C ou mais
5%
18°C 28%
17°C 21%
16°C 19%
19°C 14%
11°C ou menos
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
19%
17°C
21%
18°C
28%
19°C
14%
20°C
8%
21°C ou mais
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Tokyo high of 18°C at 28% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C and 16°C, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild late-March conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region. Historical data shows average highs around 15-17°C for March 27, but current model guidance highlights warmer low-level advection from the Pacific, tempered by potential sea breeze moderation and thin cloud cover. Differentiating factors include short-range uncertainty in frontal timing—earlier onshore flow could cap at 16°C, while delayed clearing boosts to 18°C—with JMA's next 12-hour update likely to sharpen odds amid typical spring variability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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