Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in global weather model ensembles, with ECMWF and GFS projections clustering the highest temperature in Chongqing on March 27 between 19-21°C, driving the near-even odds for those outcomes at 22-23%. Recent observations show mild early-spring conditions, with diurnal highs averaging 18-20°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, per China Meteorological Administration data, while urban heat island effects in the megacity could nudge peaks higher. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon insolation and potential overnight cooling from upstream moisture, against historical March norms of 17-22°C; watch Thursday's 00Z model runs for shifts as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 27?
19°C 23%
21°C 21%
20°C 21%
22°C 19%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
6%
18°C
19%
19°C
23%
20°C
21%
21°C
21%
22°C
19%
23°C
12%
24°C
12%
25°C
6%
26°C or higher
2%
19°C 23%
21°C 21%
20°C 21%
22°C 19%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
6%
18°C
19%
19°C
23%
20°C
21%
21°C
21%
22°C
19%
23°C
12%
24°C
12%
25°C
6%
26°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in global weather model ensembles, with ECMWF and GFS projections clustering the highest temperature in Chongqing on March 27 between 19-21°C, driving the near-even odds for those outcomes at 22-23%. Recent observations show mild early-spring conditions, with diurnal highs averaging 18-20°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, per China Meteorological Administration data, while urban heat island effects in the megacity could nudge peaks higher. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon insolation and potential overnight cooling from upstream moisture, against historical March norms of 17-22°C; watch Thursday's 00Z model runs for shifts as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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