Trader consensus prices fewer than two successful Iranian ship targets by April 30 at 55%, driven by US-led coalition airstrikes that have degraded Houthi proxy capabilities in Yemen's Red Sea corridor. Over the past week, US Central Command reported intercepting multiple drones and missiles with no confirmed vessel hits, extending a trend of low success rates since intensified military actions in January. Iran's backing of Houthi attacks tied to Gaza solidarity persists, but robust naval patrols under Operation Prosperity Guardian and depleted launch infrastructure limit escalation potential. Absent major de-escalation in Israel-Hamas talks or renewed proxy barrages, traders see barriers to higher tallies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
<2 54%
2–3 13%
8–9 12%
6–7 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
54%
2–3
13%
4–5
7%
6–7
9%
8–9
12%
10+
9%
<2 54%
2–3 13%
8–9 12%
6–7 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$348 Vol.
54%
2–3
$0 Vol.
13%
4–5
$0 Vol.
7%
6–7
$0 Vol.
9%
8–9
$0 Vol.
12%
10+
$90 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices fewer than two successful Iranian ship targets by April 30 at 55%, driven by US-led coalition airstrikes that have degraded Houthi proxy capabilities in Yemen's Red Sea corridor. Over the past week, US Central Command reported intercepting multiple drones and missiles with no confirmed vessel hits, extending a trend of low success rates since intensified military actions in January. Iran's backing of Houthi attacks tied to Gaza solidarity persists, but robust naval patrols under Operation Prosperity Guardian and depleted launch infrastructure limit escalation potential. Absent major de-escalation in Israel-Hamas talks or renewed proxy barrages, traders see barriers to higher tallies.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$438Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices fewer than two successful Iranian ship targets by April 30 at 55%, driven by US-led coalition airstrikes that have degraded Houthi proxy capabilities in Yemen's Red Sea corridor. Over the past week, US Central Command reported intercepting multiple drones and missiles with no confirmed vessel hits, extending a trend of low success rates since intensified military actions in January. Iran's backing of Houthi attacks tied to Gaza solidarity persists, but robust naval patrols under Operation Prosperity Guardian and depleted launch infrastructure limit escalation potential. Absent major de-escalation in Israel-Hamas talks or renewed proxy barrages, traders see barriers to higher tallies.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$438Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices fewer than two successful Iranian ship targets by April 30 at 55%, driven by US-led coalition airstrikes that have degraded Houthi proxy capabilities in Yemen's Red Sea corridor. Over the past week, US Central Command reported intercepting multiple drones and missiles with no confirmed vessel hits, extending a trend of low success rates since intensified military actions in January. Iran's backing of Houthi attacks tied to Gaza solidarity persists, but robust naval patrols under Operation Prosperity Guardian and depleted launch infrastructure limit escalation potential. Absent major de-escalation in Israel-Hamas talks or renewed proxy barrages, traders see barriers to higher tallies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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