Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 1, 2026, driven by official hourly observations from the station—market resolution source—showing temperatures peaking at 19°C this afternoon amid mostly clear skies and light south winds. China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, reflecting typical early April climatology where daily highs average 17–20°C under high-pressure influence. Supporting METAR data captured steady warming from morning lows near 10°C to the 19°C maximum, with no indications of further intensification. Realistic challenges would require a late-evening measurement revision upward due to urban heat island effects or station microclimate anomalies, though model consensus and diurnal cooling patterns make this unlikely; final daily summary expected from CMA shortly after midnight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$137,799 Vol.
$137,799 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$137,799 Vol.
$137,799 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 1, 2026, driven by official hourly observations from the station—market resolution source—showing temperatures peaking at 19°C this afternoon amid mostly clear skies and light south winds. China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, reflecting typical early April climatology where daily highs average 17–20°C under high-pressure influence. Supporting METAR data captured steady warming from morning lows near 10°C to the 19°C maximum, with no indications of further intensification. Realistic challenges would require a late-evening measurement revision upward due to urban heat island effects or station microclimate anomalies, though model consensus and diurnal cooling patterns make this unlikely; final daily summary expected from CMA shortly after midnight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions