Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 13°C (41.5%) over 12°C (36.0%) for Ankara's highest temperature on March 26, mirroring tight spreads in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 12.5–13°C under persistent high-pressure ridging. Recent model runs show subtle differentiation: ECMWF leans warmer with clearer skies boosting diurnal peaks, while GFS hints cooler via northerly gusts and lingering cloudiness from Black Sea moisture. Ankara's continental climate amplifies spring uncertainty, with historical late-March highs typically 11–14°C amid variable pressure gradients. The Turkish State Meteorological Service's updates confirm mild conditions, but traders eye daily forecast refreshes for shifts in boundary layer stability before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
12°C 44%
13°C 37%
11°C 13%
14°C 8%
$72,922 Vol.
$72,922 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
13%
12°C
44%
13°C
37%
14°C
8%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
12°C 44%
13°C 37%
11°C 13%
14°C 8%
$72,922 Vol.
$72,922 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
13%
12°C
44%
13°C
37%
14°C
8%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 13°C (41.5%) over 12°C (36.0%) for Ankara's highest temperature on March 26, mirroring tight spreads in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 12.5–13°C under persistent high-pressure ridging. Recent model runs show subtle differentiation: ECMWF leans warmer with clearer skies boosting diurnal peaks, while GFS hints cooler via northerly gusts and lingering cloudiness from Black Sea moisture. Ankara's continental climate amplifies spring uncertainty, with historical late-March highs typically 11–14°C amid variable pressure gradients. The Turkish State Meteorological Service's updates confirm mild conditions, but traders eye daily forecast refreshes for shifts in boundary layer stability before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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