Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Ankara's highest temperature reaching 17°C or higher on April 1, driven by midday observations at Esenboğa International Airport station already climbing toward 15°C amid mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia. Short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project peak highs of 18–20°C this afternoon, supported by light southerly winds enhancing insolation and above-seasonal norms for early April (historical averages ~16°C). Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud development or a sudden cool front reducing solar heating, though steering patterns indicate low likelihood; final resolution awaits official Wunderground LTAC data post-sunset.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on April 1?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 1?
17°C or higher 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$224,063 Vol.
$224,063 Vol.
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
Yes
17°C or higher 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$224,063 Vol.
$224,063 Vol.
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 28, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Ankara's highest temperature reaching 17°C or higher on April 1, driven by midday observations at Esenboğa International Airport station already climbing toward 15°C amid mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia. Short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project peak highs of 18–20°C this afternoon, supported by light southerly winds enhancing insolation and above-seasonal norms for early April (historical averages ~16°C). Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud development or a sudden cool front reducing solar heating, though steering patterns indicate low likelihood; final resolution awaits official Wunderground LTAC data post-sunset.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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