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Economy predictions & odds

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Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

98%

No change

$29M Vol.

$2M today

$4M Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

90%

December 31, 2026

$27M Vol.

$707K today

$180K Liq.

566

Largest Company end of May?

Largest Company end of May?

97%

NVIDIA

$5M Vol.

$631K today

$1M Liq.

Ends in 15 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

<1%

$17M Vol.

$531K today

$3M Liq.

2

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

6%

$14M Vol.

$417K today

$439K Liq.

1

Ends in 15 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

30%

$6M Vol.

$393K today

$576K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

68%

0 (0 bps)

$27M Vol.

$268K today

$1M Liq.

74

Ends in 8 months

Largest Company end of June?

Largest Company end of June?

89%

NVIDIA

$13M Vol.

$266K today

$1M Liq.

80

Ends in about 1 month

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

93%

No change

$5M Vol.

$130K today

$720K Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

45%

$173K Vol.

$102K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

2nd largest company end of May?

2nd largest company end of May?

95%

Alphabet

$221K Vol.

$194K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

58%

20+

$442K Vol.

$40.8K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

Argentina Monthly Inflation - May
Economy·Inflation

Argentina Monthly Inflation - May

54%

2.2–2.4%

$46.6K Vol.

$7.1K Liq.

Ends in 26 days

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

90%

$78.0K Vol.

$18.1K Liq.

15

Ends in 8 months

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

1%

$218K Vol.

$15.1K Liq.

9

Ends in about 1 month

How high will inflation get in 2026?
Economy·Inflation

How high will inflation get in 2026?

97%

Above 4%

$948K Vol.

$56.7K Liq.

28

Ends in 8 months

ECB Interest Rates: June 2026

ECB Interest Rates: June 2026

84%

25 bps Increase

$257K Vol.

$82.4K Liq.

Ends in 26 days

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

80%

4.6%

$213K Vol.

$20.3K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

98%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$1M Vol.

$74.3K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Fed rate hike in 2026?
Economy·Macro Single

Fed rate hike in 2026?

32%

$1M Vol.

$65.1K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Economy.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Economy that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed Decision in June?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $147.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed Decision in June?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed Decision in June?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 98% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Economy predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.