Google 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
xAI <1%
$36,331,301 Vol.
$36,331,301 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025

Yes

OpenAI
No

Alibaba
No

xAI
No

Anthropic
No

Meta
No

Mistral AI
No

DeepSeek
No

Microsoft
No

Z.ai
No

Tencent
No

Moonshot
No
Google 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
xAI <1%
$36,331,301 Vol.
$36,331,301 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025

$4,201,493 Vol.
Yes

OpenAI
$2,799,960 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$2,355,571 Vol.
No

xAI
$2,476,743 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$2,632,067 Vol.
No

Meta
$1,794,863 Vol.
No

Mistral AI
$1,640,870 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$2,069,280 Vol.
No

Microsoft
$8,697,440 Vol.
No

Z.ai
$1,870,945 Vol.
No

Tencent
$4,063,680 Vol.
No

Moonshot
$1,728,389 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by Company D has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may be updated in the future to replace Company D with the name of another company.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by Company D has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may be updated in the future to replace Company D with the name of another company.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market may be updated in the future to replace Company D with the name of another company.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2024, 3:23 PM ET
Volume
$36,331,301End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Dec 31, 2024, 3:23 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No




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