Recent U.S. inflation and labor data have reinforced trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. Headline CPI reached 4.2% year-over-year in May amid energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures also edged higher. The May jobs report showed solid payroll gains of 172,000 with unemployment holding steady, supporting views of a resilient economy. Institutions including Goldman Sachs have revised out 2026 rate cuts entirely, and futures markets now price limited easing risk despite the Fed’s median dot plot still embedding one 25-basis-point reduction. Incoming CPI and employment releases before mid-September, along with any de-escalation in commodity markets, remain the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$286,143 Vol.
$286,143 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$286,143 Vol.
$286,143 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$49,692 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$54,306 Vol.
8%
No change
$80,641 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$56,303 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$45,221 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation and labor data have reinforced trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. Headline CPI reached 4.2% year-over-year in May amid energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures also edged higher. The May jobs report showed solid payroll gains of 172,000 with unemployment holding steady, supporting views of a resilient economy. Institutions including Goldman Sachs have revised out 2026 rate cuts entirely, and futures markets now price limited easing risk despite the Fed’s median dot plot still embedding one 25-basis-point reduction. Incoming CPI and employment releases before mid-September, along with any de-escalation in commodity markets, remain the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$286,143Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation and labor data have reinforced trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. Headline CPI reached 4.2% year-over-year in May amid energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures also edged higher. The May jobs report showed solid payroll gains of 172,000 with unemployment holding steady, supporting views of a resilient economy. Institutions including Goldman Sachs have revised out 2026 rate cuts entirely, and futures markets now price limited easing risk despite the Fed’s median dot plot still embedding one 25-basis-point reduction. Incoming CPI and employment releases before mid-September, along with any de-escalation in commodity markets, remain the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$286,143Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation and labor data have reinforced trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. Headline CPI reached 4.2% year-over-year in May amid energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures also edged higher. The May jobs report showed solid payroll gains of 172,000 with unemployment holding steady, supporting views of a resilient economy. Institutions including Goldman Sachs have revised out 2026 rate cuts entirely, and futures markets now price limited easing risk despite the Fed’s median dot plot still embedding one 25-basis-point reduction. Incoming CPI and employment releases before mid-September, along with any de-escalation in commodity markets, remain the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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