Recent U.S. economic data have kept the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with inflation readings (headline PCE near 3.2-3.5% and CPI elevated by energy costs tied to Middle East developments) remaining above the Fed’s 2% goal while the labor market shows steady unemployment near 4.3% and moderate payroll gains. FOMC participants’ March dot-plot projections and subsequent minutes indicate a preference for holding policy steady through mid-2026 absent clearer disinflation or material labor-market softening. Market pricing for the September 15-16 meeting therefore assigns the highest probability to no change, reflecting trader consensus that incoming inflation and employment figures will not yet justify a 25-basis-point adjustment in either direction. Modest probabilities attached to a hike or cut capture risks from further commodity-price spikes or faster-than-expected cooling in core services.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$286,143 KL.
$286,143 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$286,143 KL.
$286,143 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$49,692 KL.
2%
25 bps decrease
$54,306 KL.
8%
No change
$80,641 KL.
74%
25 bps increase
$56,283 KL.
16%
50+ bps increase
$45,221 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have kept the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with inflation readings (headline PCE near 3.2-3.5% and CPI elevated by energy costs tied to Middle East developments) remaining above the Fed’s 2% goal while the labor market shows steady unemployment near 4.3% and moderate payroll gains. FOMC participants’ March dot-plot projections and subsequent minutes indicate a preference for holding policy steady through mid-2026 absent clearer disinflation or material labor-market softening. Market pricing for the September 15-16 meeting therefore assigns the highest probability to no change, reflecting trader consensus that incoming inflation and employment figures will not yet justify a 25-basis-point adjustment in either direction. Modest probabilities attached to a hike or cut capture risks from further commodity-price spikes or faster-than-expected cooling in core services.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$286,143Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have kept the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with inflation readings (headline PCE near 3.2-3.5% and CPI elevated by energy costs tied to Middle East developments) remaining above the Fed’s 2% goal while the labor market shows steady unemployment near 4.3% and moderate payroll gains. FOMC participants’ March dot-plot projections and subsequent minutes indicate a preference for holding policy steady through mid-2026 absent clearer disinflation or material labor-market softening. Market pricing for the September 15-16 meeting therefore assigns the highest probability to no change, reflecting trader consensus that incoming inflation and employment figures will not yet justify a 25-basis-point adjustment in either direction. Modest probabilities attached to a hike or cut capture risks from further commodity-price spikes or faster-than-expected cooling in core services.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$286,143Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data have kept the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with inflation readings (headline PCE near 3.2-3.5% and CPI elevated by energy costs tied to Middle East developments) remaining above the Fed’s 2% goal while the labor market shows steady unemployment near 4.3% and moderate payroll gains. FOMC participants’ March dot-plot projections and subsequent minutes indicate a preference for holding policy steady through mid-2026 absent clearer disinflation or material labor-market softening. Market pricing for the September 15-16 meeting therefore assigns the highest probability to no change, reflecting trader consensus that incoming inflation and employment figures will not yet justify a 25-basis-point adjustment in either direction. Modest probabilities attached to a hike or cut capture risks from further commodity-price spikes or faster-than-expected cooling in core services.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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