Recent U.S. inflation data, including the May CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds rate steady at its September 15-16 meeting. Elevated readings on both headline and underlying measures, influenced by energy prices and sticky services components, have shifted market-implied probabilities away from cuts that were once anticipated earlier in 2026. Stable labor market conditions and the absence of clear disinflation progress further support the consensus for no change, while modest probabilities attached to a 25 basis point hike reflect limited but present upside risks in some pricing models. Scheduled data releases through the summer will continue to shape these assessments ahead of the meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 10.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
$301,747 Vol.
$301,747 Vol.
2026/09/16
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
11%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 10.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
$301,747 Vol.
$301,747 Vol.
2026/09/16
50+ bps decrease
$51,629 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$62,247 Vol.
11%
No change
$82,602 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$58,256 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$47,205 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the May CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds rate steady at its September 15-16 meeting. Elevated readings on both headline and underlying measures, influenced by energy prices and sticky services components, have shifted market-implied probabilities away from cuts that were once anticipated earlier in 2026. Stable labor market conditions and the absence of clear disinflation progress further support the consensus for no change, while modest probabilities attached to a 25 basis point hike reflect limited but present upside risks in some pricing models. Scheduled data releases through the summer will continue to shape these assessments ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
音量
$301,747終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the May CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds rate steady at its September 15-16 meeting. Elevated readings on both headline and underlying measures, influenced by energy prices and sticky services components, have shifted market-implied probabilities away from cuts that were once anticipated earlier in 2026. Stable labor market conditions and the absence of clear disinflation progress further support the consensus for no change, while modest probabilities attached to a 25 basis point hike reflect limited but present upside risks in some pricing models. Scheduled data releases through the summer will continue to shape these assessments ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$301,747終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including the May CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds rate steady at its September 15-16 meeting. Elevated readings on both headline and underlying measures, influenced by energy prices and sticky services components, have shifted market-implied probabilities away from cuts that were once anticipated earlier in 2026. Stable labor market conditions and the absence of clear disinflation progress further support the consensus for no change, while modest probabilities attached to a 25 basis point hike reflect limited but present upside risks in some pricing models. Scheduled data releases through the summer will continue to shape these assessments ahead of the meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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