Recent U.S. inflation data showing headline CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year in May—the highest reading since 2023—driven primarily by a sharp energy price surge tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for a cautious Federal Reserve stance. The May employment report added 172,000 jobs with a stable unemployment rate, underscoring labor market resilience that reduces pressure for near-term easing. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% following the April hold and the upcoming June FOMC meeting likely to maintain an extended pause, the September 15-16 decision faces limited scope for adjustment absent clear disinflation or labor market softening. These fundamentals have produced strong market consensus around no change while assigning only modest probabilities to modest hikes or cuts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$286,222 Объем
$286,222 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$286,222 Объем
$286,222 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$49,788 Объем
2%
25 bps decrease
$54,328 Объем
8%
No change
$80,641 Объем
74%
25 bps increase
$56,303 Объем
16%
50+ bps increase
$45,221 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data showing headline CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year in May—the highest reading since 2023—driven primarily by a sharp energy price surge tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for a cautious Federal Reserve stance. The May employment report added 172,000 jobs with a stable unemployment rate, underscoring labor market resilience that reduces pressure for near-term easing. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% following the April hold and the upcoming June FOMC meeting likely to maintain an extended pause, the September 15-16 decision faces limited scope for adjustment absent clear disinflation or labor market softening. These fundamentals have produced strong market consensus around no change while assigning only modest probabilities to modest hikes or cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$286,222Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data showing headline CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year in May—the highest reading since 2023—driven primarily by a sharp energy price surge tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for a cautious Federal Reserve stance. The May employment report added 172,000 jobs with a stable unemployment rate, underscoring labor market resilience that reduces pressure for near-term easing. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% following the April hold and the upcoming June FOMC meeting likely to maintain an extended pause, the September 15-16 decision faces limited scope for adjustment absent clear disinflation or labor market softening. These fundamentals have produced strong market consensus around no change while assigning only modest probabilities to modest hikes or cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$286,222Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data showing headline CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year in May—the highest reading since 2023—driven primarily by a sharp energy price surge tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for a cautious Federal Reserve stance. The May employment report added 172,000 jobs with a stable unemployment rate, underscoring labor market resilience that reduces pressure for near-term easing. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% following the April hold and the upcoming June FOMC meeting likely to maintain an extended pause, the September 15-16 decision faces limited scope for adjustment absent clear disinflation or labor market softening. These fundamentals have produced strong market consensus around no change while assigning only modest probabilities to modest hikes or cuts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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