Strong recent U.S. employment data, including solid May payroll gains, combined with headline CPI near 4.2% and persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, have reinforced trader expectations that policymakers will hold the federal funds rate steady through the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Elevated energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions and lingering tariff effects have kept inflation risks tilted to the upside, prompting some Fed officials to signal openness to policy firming if price pressures fail to moderate. With the labor market remaining resilient and unemployment hovering around 4.3–4.4%, the market’s 73.5% probability on no change reflects the current data-driven pause, while the 16% odds on a 25-basis-point hike capture the minority view that further tightening could be warranted later in the year.