Recent U.S. inflation data, including the May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year with notable energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Open Committee will maintain the federal funds rate target range at its September 15-16 meeting. Minutes from the April FOMC session and subsequent economic releases highlight ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target alongside moderate job gains and an unemployment rate near 4.3%. These factors have shifted implied probabilities toward holding policy steady at the current 3.50%-3.75% range, consistent with the 73.5% market consensus for no change, while limiting odds of a 25 basis point move in either direction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,286 Vol.
$285,286 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,286 Vol.
$285,286 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including the May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year with notable energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Open Committee will maintain the federal funds rate target range at its September 15-16 meeting. Minutes from the April FOMC session and subsequent economic releases highlight ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target alongside moderate job gains and an unemployment rate near 4.3%. These factors have shifted implied probabilities toward holding policy steady at the current 3.50%-3.75% range, consistent with the 73.5% market consensus for no change, while limiting odds of a 25 basis point move in either direction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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