Elevated inflation readings, particularly headline CPI near 3.8% and PCE pressures tied to rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader expectations toward a hold at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market data and steady GDP growth further reduce the case for near-term easing, while the current 3.5-3.75% target range shows limited evidence warranting a 25 basis point hike despite some hawkish signals in recent minutes. This dynamic explains the 73.5% consensus on no change, with modest pricing on a modest increase reflecting inflation risks and low probabilities on cuts indicating delayed disinflation progress. Scheduled September projections and upcoming data releases on prices and employment remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$286,280 Vol.
$286,280 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$286,280 Vol.
$286,280 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$49,788 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$54,328 Vol.
8%
No change
$80,641 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$56,353 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$45,221 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, particularly headline CPI near 3.8% and PCE pressures tied to rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader expectations toward a hold at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market data and steady GDP growth further reduce the case for near-term easing, while the current 3.5-3.75% target range shows limited evidence warranting a 25 basis point hike despite some hawkish signals in recent minutes. This dynamic explains the 73.5% consensus on no change, with modest pricing on a modest increase reflecting inflation risks and low probabilities on cuts indicating delayed disinflation progress. Scheduled September projections and upcoming data releases on prices and employment remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
ভলিউম
$286,280শেষ তারিখ
Sep 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, particularly headline CPI near 3.8% and PCE pressures tied to rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader expectations toward a hold at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market data and steady GDP growth further reduce the case for near-term easing, while the current 3.5-3.75% target range shows limited evidence warranting a 25 basis point hike despite some hawkish signals in recent minutes. This dynamic explains the 73.5% consensus on no change, with modest pricing on a modest increase reflecting inflation risks and low probabilities on cuts indicating delayed disinflation progress. Scheduled September projections and upcoming data releases on prices and employment remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$286,280শেষ তারিখ
Sep 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, particularly headline CPI near 3.8% and PCE pressures tied to rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader expectations toward a hold at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market data and steady GDP growth further reduce the case for near-term easing, while the current 3.5-3.75% target range shows limited evidence warranting a 25 basis point hike despite some hawkish signals in recent minutes. This dynamic explains the 73.5% consensus on no change, with modest pricing on a modest increase reflecting inflation risks and low probabilities on cuts indicating delayed disinflation progress. Scheduled September projections and upcoming data releases on prices and employment remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা