**Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.** May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price increases tied to the Iran conflict, while core measures also edged higher. The May employment report showed solid payroll gains and stable unemployment near 4.3%, reducing near-term downside risks. With the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, most economists now forecast steady policy through year-end, and futures markets have shifted toward pricing possible hikes rather than cuts. The Fed is widely expected to drop any easing language at its June meeting, keeping decisions data-dependent ahead of the September projections release. This backdrop supports the 73.5% consensus on no change while leaving room for modest probabilities of a 25 basis point adjustment if incoming inflation or jobs data surprise.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,625 Vol.
$285,625 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,625 Vol.
$285,625 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
$49,597 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$54,306 Vol.
8%
No change
$80,616 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$56,283 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$45,221 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.**
May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price increases tied to the Iran conflict, while core measures also edged higher. The May employment report showed solid payroll gains and stable unemployment near 4.3%, reducing near-term downside risks. With the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, most economists now forecast steady policy through year-end, and futures markets have shifted toward pricing possible hikes rather than cuts. The Fed is widely expected to drop any easing language at its June meeting, keeping decisions data-dependent ahead of the September projections release. This backdrop supports the 73.5% consensus on no change while leaving room for modest probabilities of a 25 basis point adjustment if incoming inflation or jobs data surprise.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$285,625Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.**
May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price increases tied to the Iran conflict, while core measures also edged higher. The May employment report showed solid payroll gains and stable unemployment near 4.3%, reducing near-term downside risks. With the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, most economists now forecast steady policy through year-end, and futures markets have shifted toward pricing possible hikes rather than cuts. The Fed is widely expected to drop any easing language at its June meeting, keeping decisions data-dependent ahead of the September projections release. This backdrop supports the 73.5% consensus on no change while leaving room for modest probabilities of a 25 basis point adjustment if incoming inflation or jobs data surprise.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$285,625Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.** May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price increases tied to the Iran conflict, while core measures also edged higher. The May employment report showed solid payroll gains and stable unemployment near 4.3%, reducing near-term downside risks. With the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, most economists now forecast steady policy through year-end, and futures markets have shifted toward pricing possible hikes rather than cuts. The Fed is widely expected to drop any easing language at its June meeting, keeping decisions data-dependent ahead of the September projections release. This backdrop supports the 73.5% consensus on no change while leaving room for modest probabilities of a 25 basis point adjustment if incoming inflation or jobs data surprise.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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