Recent U.S. inflation data, including May 2026 CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with resilient labor market indicators such as steady payroll gains and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for steady monetary policy at the September FOMC meeting. These developments reinforce a higher-for-longer federal funds rate stance near the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, positioning no change as the clear consensus outcome at 73.5% implied probability. Limited pricing on modest hikes or cuts reflects uncertainty over whether incoming economic indicators will shift the balance before the mid-September decision, consistent with broader forecasts holding rates unchanged through much of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,625 Wol.
$285,625 Wol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,625 Wol.
$285,625 Wol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$49,597 Wol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$54,306 Wol.
8%
No change
$80,616 Wol.
74%
25 bps increase
$56,283 Wol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$44,824 Wol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including May 2026 CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with resilient labor market indicators such as steady payroll gains and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for steady monetary policy at the September FOMC meeting. These developments reinforce a higher-for-longer federal funds rate stance near the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, positioning no change as the clear consensus outcome at 73.5% implied probability. Limited pricing on modest hikes or cuts reflects uncertainty over whether incoming economic indicators will shift the balance before the mid-September decision, consistent with broader forecasts holding rates unchanged through much of 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$285,625Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including May 2026 CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with resilient labor market indicators such as steady payroll gains and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for steady monetary policy at the September FOMC meeting. These developments reinforce a higher-for-longer federal funds rate stance near the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, positioning no change as the clear consensus outcome at 73.5% implied probability. Limited pricing on modest hikes or cuts reflects uncertainty over whether incoming economic indicators will shift the balance before the mid-September decision, consistent with broader forecasts holding rates unchanged through much of 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$285,625Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including May 2026 CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with resilient labor market indicators such as steady payroll gains and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for steady monetary policy at the September FOMC meeting. These developments reinforce a higher-for-longer federal funds rate stance near the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, positioning no change as the clear consensus outcome at 73.5% implied probability. Limited pricing on modest hikes or cuts reflects uncertainty over whether incoming economic indicators will shift the balance before the mid-September decision, consistent with broader forecasts holding rates unchanged through much of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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