Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands 34.9% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, propelled by their early March UMK national final triumph and a standout entry blending jury-pleasing production with high-energy televote punch—echoing Nordic winners like 2023's "Cha Cha Cha." Recent Melodi Grand Prix victor Søren Torpegaard Lund's "Før vi går hjem" (Denmark, 11.4%) and France's Monroe with "Regarde" (12.6%) hold strong on polished pop appeal and precursor buzz, while Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse," 7.8%) and Greece's Akylas ("Ferto," 6.7%) leverage star power in a splintered field of 37 contenders. With national selections largely wrapped, semi-final allocations and Vienna rehearsals loom as pivotal momentum shifters before the May 16 final.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedEurovision Winner 2026
Eurovision Winner 2026
Finland 34.9%
France 13.2%
Denmark 11.2%
Australia 7.8%
$49,264,537 Vol.
$49,264,537 Vol.

Finland
35%

France
13%

Denmark
11%

Australia
8%

Greece
7%

Israel
4%

Sweden
4%

Italy
3%

Ukraine
2%

Romania
2%

Cyprus
1%

Malta
1%

Czechia
1%

Bulgaria
1%

Moldova
1%

Germany
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Switzerland
1%

United Kingdom
1%

Belgium
1%

Croatia
1%

Norway
1%

Albania
<1%

Armenia
<1%

Azerbaijan
<1%

Georgia
<1%

Lithuania
<1%

Poland
<1%

Serbia
<1%

Austria
<1%

Estonia
<1%

Latvia
<1%

Portugal
<1%

San Marino
<1%

Montenegro
<1%
Finland 34.9%
France 13.2%
Denmark 11.2%
Australia 7.8%
$49,264,537 Vol.
$49,264,537 Vol.

Finland
35%

France
13%

Denmark
11%

Australia
8%

Greece
7%

Israel
4%

Sweden
4%

Italy
3%

Ukraine
2%

Romania
2%

Cyprus
1%

Malta
1%

Czechia
1%

Bulgaria
1%

Moldova
1%

Germany
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Switzerland
1%

United Kingdom
1%

Belgium
1%

Croatia
1%

Norway
1%

Albania
<1%

Armenia
<1%

Azerbaijan
<1%

Georgia
<1%

Lithuania
<1%

Poland
<1%

Serbia
<1%

Austria
<1%

Estonia
<1%

Latvia
<1%

Portugal
<1%

San Marino
<1%

Montenegro
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands 34.9% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, propelled by their early March UMK national final triumph and a standout entry blending jury-pleasing production with high-energy televote punch—echoing Nordic winners like 2023's "Cha Cha Cha." Recent Melodi Grand Prix victor Søren Torpegaard Lund's "Før vi går hjem" (Denmark, 11.4%) and France's Monroe with "Regarde" (12.6%) hold strong on polished pop appeal and precursor buzz, while Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse," 7.8%) and Greece's Akylas ("Ferto," 6.7%) leverage star power in a splintered field of 37 contenders. With national selections largely wrapped, semi-final allocations and Vienna rehearsals loom as pivotal momentum shifters before the May 16 final.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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