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Finance·Indicies

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

Market icon
Finance·Indicies

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

<$6,000 36%

$6,500-$7,000 19%

$7,000-$7,500 18%

$6,000-$6,500 16%

Polymarket

$11,155 Vol.

<$6,000 36%

$6,500-$7,000 19%

$7,000-$7,500 18%

$6,000-$6,500 16%

Polymarket

$11,155 Vol.

<$6,000

$6,477 Vol.

36%

$6,000-$6,500

$854 Vol.

16%

$6,500-$7,000

$1,137 Vol.

19%

$7,000-$7,500

$564 Vol.

18%

$7,500-$8,000

$964 Vol.

11%

>$8,000

$1,158 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 33.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026—the leading bucket in a fragmented field—as elevated forward P/E ratios near 22 and anticipated Trump administration tariffs threaten to reignite inflation, curbing earnings growth from the current index level of 6,036. Recent post-election gains exceeding 10% since November, fueled by tax cut optimism, were tempered by the Federal Reserve's cautious December 25 basis point cut to 4.25-4.50% amid sticky core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Higher brackets above 7,000 (29.5% combined) reflect potential 12-15% annual EPS expansion from AI productivity, while sub-6,000 odds incorporate recession risks from policy shocks. Watch January FOMC and Q4 earnings for shifts.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$11,155
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 33.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026—the leading bucket in a fragmented field—as elevated forward P/E ratios near 22 and anticipated Trump administration tariffs threaten to reignite inflation, curbing earnings growth from the current index level of 6,036. Recent post-election gains exceeding 10% since November, fueled by tax cut optimism, were tempered by the Federal Reserve's cautious December 25 basis point cut to 4.25-4.50% amid sticky core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Higher brackets above 7,000 (29.5% combined) reflect potential 12-15% annual EPS expansion from AI productivity, while sub-6,000 odds incorporate recession risks from policy shocks. Watch January FOMC and Q4 earnings for shifts.

Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 33.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026—the leading bucket in a fragmented field—as elevated forward P/E ratios near 22 and anticipated Trump administration tariffs threaten to reignite inflation, curbing earnings growth from the current index level of 6,036. Recent post-election gains exceeding 10% since November, fueled by tax cut optimism, were tempered by the Federal Reserve's cautious December 25 basis point cut to 4.25-4.50% amid sticky core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Higher brackets above 7,000 (29.5% combined) reflect potential 12-15% annual EPS expansion from AI productivity, while sub-6,000 odds incorporate recession risks from policy shocks. Watch January FOMC and Q4 earnings for shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<$6,000" at 36%, followed by "$6,500-$7,000" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" has generated $11.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" is "<$6,000" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$6,500-$7,000" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.