Escalating threats from Yemen's Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a chokepoint for 12% of global trade and key oil/gas flows—amid their missile strikes on Israel in solidarity with Iran during the US-Iran war have sharpened trader focus on supply chain vulnerabilities. With the Strait of Hormuz operationally closed since late February, Red Sea traffic lingers below trend at around 33 daily transits, sustaining Africa reroutes that cut effective capacity 15-20% and lift Drewry World Container Index 5% weekly to $2,279 per 40ft. Brent crude nears $114/bbl, up 55% yearly on risk premiums, as war insurance surges 10-fold. Upcoming Houthi actions and US responses could dictate resolution by late April.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
$278,150 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
March 31
3%
April 30
40%
$278,150 Vol.
March 31
$161,865 Vol.
3%
April 30
$116,318 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Escalating threats from Yemen's Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a chokepoint for 12% of global trade and key oil/gas flows—amid their missile strikes on Israel in solidarity with Iran during the US-Iran war have sharpened trader focus on supply chain vulnerabilities. With the Strait of Hormuz operationally closed since late February, Red Sea traffic lingers below trend at around 33 daily transits, sustaining Africa reroutes that cut effective capacity 15-20% and lift Drewry World Container Index 5% weekly to $2,279 per 40ft. Brent crude nears $114/bbl, up 55% yearly on risk premiums, as war insurance surges 10-fold. Upcoming Houthi actions and US responses could dictate resolution by late April.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$278,150End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Escalating threats from Yemen's Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a chokepoint for 12% of global trade and key oil/gas flows—amid their missile strikes on Israel in solidarity with Iran during the US-Iran war have sharpened trader focus on supply chain vulnerabilities. With the Strait of Hormuz operationally closed since late February, Red Sea traffic lingers below trend at around 33 daily transits, sustaining Africa reroutes that cut effective capacity 15-20% and lift Drewry World Container Index 5% weekly to $2,279 per 40ft. Brent crude nears $114/bbl, up 55% yearly on risk premiums, as war insurance surges 10-fold. Upcoming Houthi actions and US responses could dictate resolution by late April.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Volume
$278,150End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating threats from Yemen's Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a chokepoint for 12% of global trade and key oil/gas flows—amid their missile strikes on Israel in solidarity with Iran during the US-Iran war have sharpened trader focus on supply chain vulnerabilities. With the Strait of Hormuz operationally closed since late February, Red Sea traffic lingers below trend at around 33 daily transits, sustaining Africa reroutes that cut effective capacity 15-20% and lift Drewry World Container Index 5% weekly to $2,279 per 40ft. Brent crude nears $114/bbl, up 55% yearly on risk premiums, as war insurance surges 10-fold. Upcoming Houthi actions and US responses could dictate resolution by late April.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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