Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.9% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude correlates with fault rupture length; a moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0 would require a rupture exceeding 10,000 km—longer than Earth's circumference allows for tectonic faults—far beyond the 1960 Valdivia Mw 9.5, the largest recorded. No seismic precursors or megathrust zones capable of this exist, and USGS global monitoring through April 2026 shows no Mw 9+ events recently. Realistic challenges would demand unprecedented fault linkage or measurement revisions, both unsupported by current geophysical models or data. Continuous USGS real-time feeds will track any anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$532,479 Vol.
$532,479 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$532,479 Vol.
$532,479 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.9% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude correlates with fault rupture length; a moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0 would require a rupture exceeding 10,000 km—longer than Earth's circumference allows for tectonic faults—far beyond the 1960 Valdivia Mw 9.5, the largest recorded. No seismic precursors or megathrust zones capable of this exist, and USGS global monitoring through April 2026 shows no Mw 9+ events recently. Realistic challenges would demand unprecedented fault linkage or measurement revisions, both unsupported by current geophysical models or data. Continuous USGS real-time feeds will track any anomalies.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$532,479End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.9% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude correlates with fault rupture length; a moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0 would require a rupture exceeding 10,000 km—longer than Earth's circumference allows for tectonic faults—far beyond the 1960 Valdivia Mw 9.5, the largest recorded. No seismic precursors or megathrust zones capable of this exist, and USGS global monitoring through April 2026 shows no Mw 9+ events recently. Realistic challenges would demand unprecedented fault linkage or measurement revisions, both unsupported by current geophysical models or data. Continuous USGS real-time feeds will track any anomalies.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$532,479End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.9% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude correlates with fault rupture length; a moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0 would require a rupture exceeding 10,000 km—longer than Earth's circumference allows for tectonic faults—far beyond the 1960 Valdivia Mw 9.5, the largest recorded. No seismic precursors or megathrust zones capable of this exist, and USGS global monitoring through April 2026 shows no Mw 9+ events recently. Realistic challenges would demand unprecedented fault linkage or measurement revisions, both unsupported by current geophysical models or data. Continuous USGS real-time feeds will track any anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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