Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) drives Republican trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, dominant fundraising ($3.8 million cash on hand as of March), and the district's historical Republican lean under the prior map. A state Supreme Court ruling last week rejected voter-approved mid-decade redistricting changes from April 21 that could have favored Democrats—potentially flipping four seats statewide—reinstating the incumbent-friendly boundaries and tempering Democratic odds at 25.5%. A crowded Democratic primary field, led by Shannon Taylor's $1.3 million raised, adds uncertainty ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and November general election, with no public polls yet available.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,991 거래량
$17,991 거래량
2026.11.04
민주당
47%
공화당
47%
$17,991 거래량
$17,991 거래량
2026.11.04
민주당
$16,285 거래량
47%
공화당
$1,706 거래량
47%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) drives Republican trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, dominant fundraising ($3.8 million cash on hand as of March), and the district's historical Republican lean under the prior map. A state Supreme Court ruling last week rejected voter-approved mid-decade redistricting changes from April 21 that could have favored Democrats—potentially flipping four seats statewide—reinstating the incumbent-friendly boundaries and tempering Democratic odds at 25.5%. A crowded Democratic primary field, led by Shannon Taylor's $1.3 million raised, adds uncertainty ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and November general election, with no public polls yet available.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
거래량
$17,991종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) drives Republican trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, dominant fundraising ($3.8 million cash on hand as of March), and the district's historical Republican lean under the prior map. A state Supreme Court ruling last week rejected voter-approved mid-decade redistricting changes from April 21 that could have favored Democrats—potentially flipping four seats statewide—reinstating the incumbent-friendly boundaries and tempering Democratic odds at 25.5%. A crowded Democratic primary field, led by Shannon Taylor's $1.3 million raised, adds uncertainty ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and November general election, with no public polls yet available.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,991종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) drives Republican trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, dominant fundraising ($3.8 million cash on hand as of March), and the district's historical Republican lean under the prior map. A state Supreme Court ruling last week rejected voter-approved mid-decade redistricting changes from April 21 that could have favored Democrats—potentially flipping four seats statewide—reinstating the incumbent-friendly boundaries and tempering Democratic odds at 25.5%. A crowded Democratic primary field, led by Shannon Taylor's $1.3 million raised, adds uncertainty ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and November general election, with no public polls yet available.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문