Incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D) dominant March Democratic primary win with 58% solidified his path to a general election rematch against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina (R), who captured 74% in the GOP primary, in the Democratic-leaning South Texas district where Kamala Harris won by 23 points in 2024. Trader consensus favoring Democrats at 64% reflects Cuellar's incumbency advantage, resolved legal challenges via a December 2025 presidential pardon boosting ratings to Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, and fundraising edge ($764K cash on hand vs. Tijerina's $577K as of mid-April). Recent GOP optimism from NRCC recruitment, Trump endorsement, and CLF ad reservations in South Texas has narrowed Republican odds to 31%, but district demographics and Cuellar's moderate border security stance sustain the Democratic edge ahead of November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
60%
Republican Party
28%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$1,055 거래량
60%
Republican Party
$231 거래량
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D) dominant March Democratic primary win with 58% solidified his path to a general election rematch against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina (R), who captured 74% in the GOP primary, in the Democratic-leaning South Texas district where Kamala Harris won by 23 points in 2024. Trader consensus favoring Democrats at 64% reflects Cuellar's incumbency advantage, resolved legal challenges via a December 2025 presidential pardon boosting ratings to Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, and fundraising edge ($764K cash on hand vs. Tijerina's $577K as of mid-April). Recent GOP optimism from NRCC recruitment, Trump endorsement, and CLF ad reservations in South Texas has narrowed Republican odds to 31%, but district demographics and Cuellar's moderate border security stance sustain the Democratic edge ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
거래량
$1,286종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D) dominant March Democratic primary win with 58% solidified his path to a general election rematch against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina (R), who captured 74% in the GOP primary, in the Democratic-leaning South Texas district where Kamala Harris won by 23 points in 2024. Trader consensus favoring Democrats at 64% reflects Cuellar's incumbency advantage, resolved legal challenges via a December 2025 presidential pardon boosting ratings to Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, and fundraising edge ($764K cash on hand vs. Tijerina's $577K as of mid-April). Recent GOP optimism from NRCC recruitment, Trump endorsement, and CLF ad reservations in South Texas has narrowed Republican odds to 31%, but district demographics and Cuellar's moderate border security stance sustain the Democratic edge ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$1,286종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D) dominant March Democratic primary win with 58% solidified his path to a general election rematch against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina (R), who captured 74% in the GOP primary, in the Democratic-leaning South Texas district where Kamala Harris won by 23 points in 2024. Trader consensus favoring Democrats at 64% reflects Cuellar's incumbency advantage, resolved legal challenges via a December 2025 presidential pardon boosting ratings to Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, and fundraising edge ($764K cash on hand vs. Tijerina's $577K as of mid-April). Recent GOP optimism from NRCC recruitment, Trump endorsement, and CLF ad reservations in South Texas has narrowed Republican odds to 31%, but district demographics and Cuellar's moderate border security stance sustain the Democratic edge ahead of November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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