Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection track record since 2017, bolstered by CA-24's partisan lean favoring Democrats through voter registration advantages and consistent past performance, drives trader consensus to 93.5% for a Democratic House winner. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Carbajal faces nominal challengers including Democrat Sarah Bacon and Republican Bob Smith, neither posing a serious threat per early forecasts rating the seat safe Democratic. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this positioning. Scenarios to challenge include a GOP midterm wave, Carbajal scandal, health issue, or unexpected primary upset advancing a weak Democrat to face a surged Republican, though historical incumbent advantages in such districts make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,816 거래량
$17,816 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,816 거래량
$17,816 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$9,935 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$7,881 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection track record since 2017, bolstered by CA-24's partisan lean favoring Democrats through voter registration advantages and consistent past performance, drives trader consensus to 93.5% for a Democratic House winner. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Carbajal faces nominal challengers including Democrat Sarah Bacon and Republican Bob Smith, neither posing a serious threat per early forecasts rating the seat safe Democratic. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this positioning. Scenarios to challenge include a GOP midterm wave, Carbajal scandal, health issue, or unexpected primary upset advancing a weak Democrat to face a surged Republican, though historical incumbent advantages in such districts make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$17,816종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection track record since 2017, bolstered by CA-24's partisan lean favoring Democrats through voter registration advantages and consistent past performance, drives trader consensus to 93.5% for a Democratic House winner. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Carbajal faces nominal challengers including Democrat Sarah Bacon and Republican Bob Smith, neither posing a serious threat per early forecasts rating the seat safe Democratic. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this positioning. Scenarios to challenge include a GOP midterm wave, Carbajal scandal, health issue, or unexpected primary upset advancing a weak Democrat to face a surged Republican, though historical incumbent advantages in such districts make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,816종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection track record since 2017, bolstered by CA-24's partisan lean favoring Democrats through voter registration advantages and consistent past performance, drives trader consensus to 93.5% for a Democratic House winner. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Carbajal faces nominal challengers including Democrat Sarah Bacon and Republican Bob Smith, neither posing a serious threat per early forecasts rating the seat safe Democratic. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this positioning. Scenarios to challenge include a GOP midterm wave, Carbajal scandal, health issue, or unexpected primary upset advancing a weak Democrat to face a surged Republican, though historical incumbent advantages in such districts make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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