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習近平国家主席は6月30日までに退任しますか？

Market icon

習近平国家主席は6月30日までに退任しますか？

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

はい

3% chance
Polymarket

$1,676,349 Vol.

はい

3% chance
Polymarket

$1,676,349 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.2% implied probability against Xi Jinping leaving power by June 30, reflecting his unchallenged dominance as China's paramount leader, solidified by constitutional removal of term limits in 2018 and ongoing military purges of top generals in February-March 2026. Recent developments, including Xi's Two Sessions remarks emphasizing "Healthy China" reforms and national stability amid global tensions, underscore institutional continuity without hints of succession or crisis. No verified reports of health issues, factional revolts, or policy failures have emerged in the past 30 days. While abrupt scenarios like a sudden health event, elite purge backlash, or unforeseen diplomatic rupture could shift odds, structural barriers to removal remain formidable in China's one-party system.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.2% implied probability against Xi Jinping leaving power by June 30, reflecting his unchallenged dominance as China's paramount leader, solidified by constitutional removal of term limits in 2018 and ongoing military purges of top generals in February-March 2026. Recent developments, including Xi's Two Sessions remarks emphasizing "Healthy China" reforms and national stability amid global tensions, underscore institutional continuity without hints of succession or crisis. No verified reports of health issues, factional revolts, or policy failures have emerged in the past 30 days. While abrupt scenarios like a sudden health event, elite purge backlash, or unforeseen diplomatic rupture could shift odds, structural barriers to removal remain formidable in China's one-party system.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.2% implied probability against Xi Jinping leaving power by June 30, reflecting his unchallenged dominance as China's paramount leader, solidified by constitutional removal of term limits in 2018 and ongoing military purges of top generals in February-March 2026. Recent developments, including Xi's Two Sessions remarks emphasizing "Healthy China" reforms and national stability amid global tensions, underscore institutional continuity without hints of succession or crisis. No verified reports of health issues, factional revolts, or policy failures have emerged in the past 30 days. While abrupt scenarios like a sudden health event, elite purge backlash, or unforeseen diplomatic rupture could shift odds, structural barriers to removal remain formidable in China's one-party system.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.2% implied probability against Xi Jinping leaving power by June 30, reflecting his unchallenged dominance as China's paramount leader, solidified by constitutional removal of term limits in 2018 and ongoing military purges of top generals in February-March 2026. Recent developments, including Xi's Two Sessions remarks emphasizing "Healthy China" reforms and national stability amid global tensions, underscore institutional continuity without hints of succession or crisis. No verified reports of health issues, factional revolts, or policy failures have emerged in the past 30 days. While abrupt scenarios like a sudden health event, elite purge backlash, or unforeseen diplomatic rupture could shift odds, structural barriers to removal remain formidable in China's one-party system.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「習近平国家主席は6月30日までに退任しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「習近平は6月30日までに退陣するか？」で3%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、3¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に3%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「習近平国家主席は6月30日までに退任しますか？」は$1.7 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 17, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「習近平国家主席は6月30日までに退任しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「習近平国家主席は6月30日までに退任しますか？」の現在のリーダーは「習近平は6月30日までに退陣するか？」でわずか3%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「習近平国家主席は6月30日までに退任しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。