Xi Jinping maintains unchallenged authority within the Chinese Communist Party, as shown by the October 2026 fifth plenum's record expulsions of senior officials and military leaders alongside unusually low attendance, actions widely viewed as preparations for his expected fourth term at the 21st Party Congress scheduled for the second half of 2027. Traders assign a 98.3% implied probability that he remains in power through the end of 2026 because no succession candidate has emerged, state media continues to emphasize unity around his core leadership, and purges have thinned potential rivals without signaling any loosening of control. Realistic developments that could still shift outcomes include sudden health events or an unforeseen internal crisis before the congress, though these remain low-probability scenarios given the current institutional consolidation.