Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US annexation of territory in 2026 at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any official proposals, congressional actions, or executive signals from the incoming Trump administration pursuing territorial expansion. International norms under the UN Charter prohibiting forcible annexation, combined with post-World War II precedents limiting US growth to voluntary incorporations like Puerto Rico's status quo, underpin this positioning. No diplomatic disputes or military postures in the past 30 days—such as tensions with Mexico, Canada, or Greenland—have escalated to suggest claims; instead, focus remains on trade tariffs, border security, and NATO alliances. Fringe rhetoric occasionally surfaces online but lacks institutional backing, with 2026 midterms unlikely to alter this baseline without seismic shifts like a major territorial crisis.