Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 at just 23.5% likelihood, reflecting the absence of acute threats or official military planning amid diplomatic priorities. No escalatory military or diplomatic incidents have occurred in the region over the past 30 days, with U.S. policy focusing on sanctions against Venezuela's Maduro regime and Nicaragua rather than troop deployments. Bilateral cooperation with Mexico on fentanyl trafficking and migration has strengthened post-election, tempering earlier rhetorical threats of intervention against cartels. Resource constraints from Ukraine aid and Indo-Pacific tensions, combined with post-Afghanistan aversion to ground wars, reinforce trader skepticism, though hemispheric summits in early 2025 could signal further de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$191,216 Vol.
$191,216 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$191,216 Vol.
$191,216 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 at just 23.5% likelihood, reflecting the absence of acute threats or official military planning amid diplomatic priorities. No escalatory military or diplomatic incidents have occurred in the region over the past 30 days, with U.S. policy focusing on sanctions against Venezuela's Maduro regime and Nicaragua rather than troop deployments. Bilateral cooperation with Mexico on fentanyl trafficking and migration has strengthened post-election, tempering earlier rhetorical threats of intervention against cartels. Resource constraints from Ukraine aid and Indo-Pacific tensions, combined with post-Afghanistan aversion to ground wars, reinforce trader skepticism, though hemispheric summits in early 2025 could signal further de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
音量
$191,216終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 at just 23.5% likelihood, reflecting the absence of acute threats or official military planning amid diplomatic priorities. No escalatory military or diplomatic incidents have occurred in the region over the past 30 days, with U.S. policy focusing on sanctions against Venezuela's Maduro regime and Nicaragua rather than troop deployments. Bilateral cooperation with Mexico on fentanyl trafficking and migration has strengthened post-election, tempering earlier rhetorical threats of intervention against cartels. Resource constraints from Ukraine aid and Indo-Pacific tensions, combined with post-Afghanistan aversion to ground wars, reinforce trader skepticism, though hemispheric summits in early 2025 could signal further de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$191,216終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 at just 23.5% likelihood, reflecting the absence of acute threats or official military planning amid diplomatic priorities. No escalatory military or diplomatic incidents have occurred in the region over the past 30 days, with U.S. policy focusing on sanctions against Venezuela's Maduro regime and Nicaragua rather than troop deployments. Bilateral cooperation with Mexico on fentanyl trafficking and migration has strengthened post-election, tempering earlier rhetorical threats of intervention against cartels. Resource constraints from Ukraine aid and Indo-Pacific tensions, combined with post-Afghanistan aversion to ground wars, reinforce trader skepticism, though hemispheric summits in early 2025 could signal further de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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