US trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance against formal diplomatic recognition of opposition leader María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, driven by the Trump administration's post-Maduro transition strategy. Following Nicolás Maduro's US capture in early January 2026, officials expressed doubts about Machado's domestic support, sidelining her despite her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and meetings with President Trump. On March 12, Machado acknowledged US recognition of Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, as interim president to accelerate democratic handover, signaling preference for stabilized figures like her brother Jorge Rodríguez amid military hesitancy. White House frustrations with Machado persist, with no scheduled endorsements or elections shifting odds toward recognition.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance against formal diplomatic recognition of opposition leader María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, driven by the Trump administration's post-Maduro transition strategy. Following Nicolás Maduro's US capture in early January 2026, officials expressed doubts about Machado's domestic support, sidelining her despite her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and meetings with President Trump. On March 12, Machado acknowledged US recognition of Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, as interim president to accelerate democratic handover, signaling preference for stabilized figures like her brother Jorge Rodríguez amid military hesitancy. White House frustrations with Machado persist, with no scheduled endorsements or elections shifting odds toward recognition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance against formal diplomatic recognition of opposition leader María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, driven by the Trump administration's post-Maduro transition strategy. Following Nicolás Maduro's US capture in early January 2026, officials expressed doubts about Machado's domestic support, sidelining her despite her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and meetings with President Trump. On March 12, Machado acknowledged US recognition of Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, as interim president to accelerate democratic handover, signaling preference for stabilized figures like her brother Jorge Rodríguez amid military hesitancy. White House frustrations with Machado persist, with no scheduled endorsements or elections shifting odds toward recognition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance against formal diplomatic recognition of opposition leader María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, driven by the Trump administration's post-Maduro transition strategy. Following Nicolás Maduro's US capture in early January 2026, officials expressed doubts about Machado's domestic support, sidelining her despite her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and meetings with President Trump. On March 12, Machado acknowledged US recognition of Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, as interim president to accelerate democratic handover, signaling preference for stabilized figures like her brother Jorge Rodríguez amid military hesitancy. White House frustrations with Machado persist, with no scheduled endorsements or elections shifting odds toward recognition.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問