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米国は12月31日までにマチャド氏をベネズエラの指導者として承認するか?

Market icon

米国は12月31日までにマチャド氏をベネズエラの指導者として承認するか?

Dec 31

Dec 31

はい

18% chance
Polymarket
NEW

はい

18% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance against formal diplomatic recognition of opposition leader María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, driven by the Trump administration's post-Maduro transition strategy. Following Nicolás Maduro's US capture in early January 2026, officials expressed doubts about Machado's domestic support, sidelining her despite her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and meetings with President Trump. On March 12, Machado acknowledged US recognition of Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, as interim president to accelerate democratic handover, signaling preference for stabilized figures like her brother Jorge Rodríguez amid military hesitancy. White House frustrations with Machado persist, with no scheduled endorsements or elections shifting odds toward recognition.

US trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance against formal diplomatic recognition of opposition leader María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, driven by the Trump administration's post-Maduro transition strategy. Following Nicolás Maduro's US capture in early January 2026, officials expressed doubts about Machado's domestic support, sidelining her despite her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and meetings with President Trump. On March 12, Machado acknowledged US recognition of Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, as interim president to accelerate democratic handover, signaling preference for stabilized figures like her brother Jorge Rodríguez amid military hesitancy. White House frustrations with Machado persist, with no scheduled endorsements or elections shifting odds toward recognition.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance against formal diplomatic recognition of opposition leader María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, driven by the Trump administration's post-Maduro transition strategy. Following Nicolás Maduro's US capture in early January 2026, officials expressed doubts about Machado's domestic support, sidelining her despite her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and meetings with President Trump. On March 12, Machado acknowledged US recognition of Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, as interim president to accelerate democratic handover, signaling preference for stabilized figures like her brother Jorge Rodríguez amid military hesitancy. White House frustrations with Machado persist, with no scheduled endorsements or elections shifting odds toward recognition.

US trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance against formal diplomatic recognition of opposition leader María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, driven by the Trump administration's post-Maduro transition strategy. Following Nicolás Maduro's US capture in early January 2026, officials expressed doubts about Machado's domestic support, sidelining her despite her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and meetings with President Trump. On March 12, Machado acknowledged US recognition of Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, as interim president to accelerate democratic handover, signaling preference for stabilized figures like her brother Jorge Rodríguez amid military hesitancy. White House frustrations with Machado persist, with no scheduled endorsements or elections shifting odds toward recognition.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「米国は12月31日までにマチャド氏をベネズエラの指導者として承認するか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「米国は12月31日までにマチャドをベネズエラの指導者として認めるか?」で18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、18¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に18%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「米国は12月31日までにマチャド氏をベネズエラの指導者として承認するか?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Jan 31, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

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「米国は12月31日までにマチャド氏をベネズエラの指導者として承認するか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「米国は12月31日までにマチャドをベネズエラの指導者として認めるか?」で18%であり、市場がこの結果に18%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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