Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-zero probability of U.S. military invasion of Venezuela by the specified date, driven primarily by the absence of any official U.S. preparations, troop movements, or hawkish statements from the Biden administration amid ongoing diplomatic isolation of President Nicolás Maduro. Following Venezuela's disputed July 2024 election, the U.S. has intensified sanctions on Maduro allies and recognized opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, prioritizing economic pressure over force, consistent with historical U.S. restraint in Latin American crises. Recent migrant deportation tensions and oil sector disputes add friction but no invasion catalysts. The November 2024 U.S. presidential election looms as a potential shifter, with candidates' foreign policy rhetoric under scrutiny.