Trader consensus heavily favors Gustavo Petro ceasing to serve as Colombia's president by December 31, 2026 (94% implied probability), reflecting his constitutional term's end on August 7 following the May 31 presidential election and inauguration, while odds of an early exit by June 30 stand at just 2% absent impeachment proceedings or resignation signals. Recent U.S. Justice Department scrutiny of alleged drug trafficking ties, reported March 20, eased after officials assured no imminent charges on March 31, tempering removal speculation. March 8 legislative elections strengthened Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition but yielded no congressional majority for reforms, underscoring governance challenges in his lame-duck period ahead of the transition.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$153,740 Vol.
2026/06/30
6月30日
2%
12月31日
94%
$153,740 Vol.
6月30日
$122,360 Vol.
2%
12月31日
$31,380 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Gustavo Petro ceasing to serve as Colombia's president by December 31, 2026 (94% implied probability), reflecting his constitutional term's end on August 7 following the May 31 presidential election and inauguration, while odds of an early exit by June 30 stand at just 2% absent impeachment proceedings or resignation signals. Recent U.S. Justice Department scrutiny of alleged drug trafficking ties, reported March 20, eased after officials assured no imminent charges on March 31, tempering removal speculation. March 8 legislative elections strengthened Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition but yielded no congressional majority for reforms, underscoring governance challenges in his lame-duck period ahead of the transition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
音量
$153,740終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Gustavo Petro ceasing to serve as Colombia's president by December 31, 2026 (94% implied probability), reflecting his constitutional term's end on August 7 following the May 31 presidential election and inauguration, while odds of an early exit by June 30 stand at just 2% absent impeachment proceedings or resignation signals. Recent U.S. Justice Department scrutiny of alleged drug trafficking ties, reported March 20, eased after officials assured no imminent charges on March 31, tempering removal speculation. March 8 legislative elections strengthened Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition but yielded no congressional majority for reforms, underscoring governance challenges in his lame-duck period ahead of the transition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$153,740終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors Gustavo Petro ceasing to serve as Colombia's president by December 31, 2026 (94% implied probability), reflecting his constitutional term's end on August 7 following the May 31 presidential election and inauguration, while odds of an early exit by June 30 stand at just 2% absent impeachment proceedings or resignation signals. Recent U.S. Justice Department scrutiny of alleged drug trafficking ties, reported March 20, eased after officials assured no imminent charges on March 31, tempering removal speculation. March 8 legislative elections strengthened Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition but yielded no congressional majority for reforms, underscoring governance challenges in his lame-duck period ahead of the transition.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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