Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested race for the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, with Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler leading at 47% amid recent scrutiny over political donations and her relatively junior role, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others cluster at 40.5% due to department turmoil. Chavez-DeRemer's position has weakened from March investigations into misconduct prompting top aides' resignations, affair allegations against her bodyguard, and White House ultimatums, echoing first-term high turnover patterns despite stability through 2025. Vance and Rubio odds stem from 2028 succession rumors favoring Rubio. Escalating probes, official announcements, or midterm positioning could create separation, as no exits have materialized post-Kristi Noem.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Tulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 36%
Sean Duffy 36%
John Ratcliffe 36%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
Tulsi Gabbard
38%
Howard Lutnick
36%
Sean Duffy
36%
John Ratcliffe
36%
Pete Hegseth
35%
Russell T. Vought
33%
Doug Burgum
33%
Chris Wright
33%
Doug Collins
33%
Susie Wiles
33%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
32%
Jamieson Greer
32%
Scott Bessent
31%
Mike Waltz
31%
None before 2027
21%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
10%
Lee Zeldin
8%
J.D. Vance
3%
Marco Rubio
20%
Brooke Rollins
31%
Scott Turner
31%
Linda McMahon
32%
Kelly Loeffler
35%
Tulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 36%
Sean Duffy 36%
John Ratcliffe 36%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
Tulsi Gabbard
$6 Vol.
38%
Howard Lutnick
$5 Vol.
36%
Sean Duffy
$5 Vol.
36%
John Ratcliffe
$5 Vol.
36%
Pete Hegseth
$31 Vol.
35%
Russell T. Vought
$6 Vol.
33%
Doug Burgum
$5 Vol.
33%
Chris Wright
$5 Vol.
33%
Doug Collins
$5 Vol.
33%
Susie Wiles
$6 Vol.
33%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$78 Vol.
32%
Jamieson Greer
$5 Vol.
32%
Scott Bessent
$5 Vol.
31%
Mike Waltz
$5 Vol.
31%
None before 2027
$6 Vol.
21%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$8 Vol.
10%
Lee Zeldin
$534 Vol.
8%
J.D. Vance
$6 Vol.
3%
Marco Rubio
$6 Vol.
20%
Brooke Rollins
$5 Vol.
31%
Scott Turner
$5 Vol.
31%
Linda McMahon
$5 Vol.
32%
Kelly Loeffler
$5 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested race for the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, with Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler leading at 47% amid recent scrutiny over political donations and her relatively junior role, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others cluster at 40.5% due to department turmoil. Chavez-DeRemer's position has weakened from March investigations into misconduct prompting top aides' resignations, affair allegations against her bodyguard, and White House ultimatums, echoing first-term high turnover patterns despite stability through 2025. Vance and Rubio odds stem from 2028 succession rumors favoring Rubio. Escalating probes, official announcements, or midterm positioning could create separation, as no exits have materialized post-Kristi Noem.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$754終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested race for the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, with Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler leading at 47% amid recent scrutiny over political donations and her relatively junior role, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others cluster at 40.5% due to department turmoil. Chavez-DeRemer's position has weakened from March investigations into misconduct prompting top aides' resignations, affair allegations against her bodyguard, and White House ultimatums, echoing first-term high turnover patterns despite stability through 2025. Vance and Rubio odds stem from 2028 succession rumors favoring Rubio. Escalating probes, official announcements, or midterm positioning could create separation, as no exits have materialized post-Kristi Noem.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
音量
$754終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested race for the next Trump Cabinet departure before 2027, with Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler leading at 47% amid recent scrutiny over political donations and her relatively junior role, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others cluster at 40.5% due to department turmoil. Chavez-DeRemer's position has weakened from March investigations into misconduct prompting top aides' resignations, affair allegations against her bodyguard, and White House ultimatums, echoing first-term high turnover patterns despite stability through 2025. Vance and Rubio odds stem from 2028 succession rumors favoring Rubio. Escalating probes, official announcements, or midterm positioning could create separation, as no exits have materialized post-Kristi Noem.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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