President Trump's recent executive orders establishing federal voter lists and restricting mail-in ballots in federal elections—signed within the last week—have triggered immediate lawsuits from civil rights groups like Common Cause and the NAACP, alongside bipartisan pushback citing constitutional delegation of election administration to states. Courts have historically blocked similar efforts, emphasizing states' authority under Article I and the 10th Amendment, with even some Republicans like Sen. Rand Paul questioning federal overreach. Ahead of the 2026 midterms, trader consensus reflects a 69.5% implied probability against full nationalization, driven by these legal barriers, lack of congressional support, and state resistance, despite ongoing rhetoric on election integrity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$14,325 Vol.
$14,325 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$14,325 Vol.
$14,325 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
President Trump's recent executive orders establishing federal voter lists and restricting mail-in ballots in federal elections—signed within the last week—have triggered immediate lawsuits from civil rights groups like Common Cause and the NAACP, alongside bipartisan pushback citing constitutional delegation of election administration to states. Courts have historically blocked similar efforts, emphasizing states' authority under Article I and the 10th Amendment, with even some Republicans like Sen. Rand Paul questioning federal overreach. Ahead of the 2026 midterms, trader consensus reflects a 69.5% implied probability against full nationalization, driven by these legal barriers, lack of congressional support, and state resistance, despite ongoing rhetoric on election integrity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
音量
$14,325終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
President Trump's recent executive orders establishing federal voter lists and restricting mail-in ballots in federal elections—signed within the last week—have triggered immediate lawsuits from civil rights groups like Common Cause and the NAACP, alongside bipartisan pushback citing constitutional delegation of election administration to states. Courts have historically blocked similar efforts, emphasizing states' authority under Article I and the 10th Amendment, with even some Republicans like Sen. Rand Paul questioning federal overreach. Ahead of the 2026 midterms, trader consensus reflects a 69.5% implied probability against full nationalization, driven by these legal barriers, lack of congressional support, and state resistance, despite ongoing rhetoric on election integrity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$14,325終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's recent executive orders establishing federal voter lists and restricting mail-in ballots in federal elections—signed within the last week—have triggered immediate lawsuits from civil rights groups like Common Cause and the NAACP, alongside bipartisan pushback citing constitutional delegation of election administration to states. Courts have historically blocked similar efforts, emphasizing states' authority under Article I and the 10th Amendment, with even some Republicans like Sen. Rand Paul questioning federal overreach. Ahead of the 2026 midterms, trader consensus reflects a 69.5% implied probability against full nationalization, driven by these legal barriers, lack of congressional support, and state resistance, despite ongoing rhetoric on election integrity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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