Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 21 announcement at Davos renouncing military force in favor of a negotiated framework for expanded access, following earlier tariff threats and White House "all options" rhetoric. House Speaker Mike Johnson affirmed no military takeover on January 7, while congressional bills like the Greenland Sovereignty Protection Act explicitly prohibit funding for invasion or annexation. Recent Pentagon talks with Denmark, reported April 1, seek diplomatic access to three additional bases near Pituffik Space Base, underscoring de-escalation amid NATO ally sensitivities and logistical barriers to invasion. Absent major escalations like sovereignty crises or Russian/Chinese moves, odds remain firmly against military action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$1,267,136 Vol.
$1,267,136 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$1,267,136 Vol.
$1,267,136 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 21 announcement at Davos renouncing military force in favor of a negotiated framework for expanded access, following earlier tariff threats and White House "all options" rhetoric. House Speaker Mike Johnson affirmed no military takeover on January 7, while congressional bills like the Greenland Sovereignty Protection Act explicitly prohibit funding for invasion or annexation. Recent Pentagon talks with Denmark, reported April 1, seek diplomatic access to three additional bases near Pituffik Space Base, underscoring de-escalation amid NATO ally sensitivities and logistical barriers to invasion. Absent major escalations like sovereignty crises or Russian/Chinese moves, odds remain firmly against military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
音量
$1,267,136終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 21 announcement at Davos renouncing military force in favor of a negotiated framework for expanded access, following earlier tariff threats and White House "all options" rhetoric. House Speaker Mike Johnson affirmed no military takeover on January 7, while congressional bills like the Greenland Sovereignty Protection Act explicitly prohibit funding for invasion or annexation. Recent Pentagon talks with Denmark, reported April 1, seek diplomatic access to three additional bases near Pituffik Space Base, underscoring de-escalation amid NATO ally sensitivities and logistical barriers to invasion. Absent major escalations like sovereignty crises or Russian/Chinese moves, odds remain firmly against military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,267,136終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 21 announcement at Davos renouncing military force in favor of a negotiated framework for expanded access, following earlier tariff threats and White House "all options" rhetoric. House Speaker Mike Johnson affirmed no military takeover on January 7, while congressional bills like the Greenland Sovereignty Protection Act explicitly prohibit funding for invasion or annexation. Recent Pentagon talks with Denmark, reported April 1, seek diplomatic access to three additional bases near Pituffik Space Base, underscoring de-escalation amid NATO ally sensitivities and logistical barriers to invasion. Absent major escalations like sovereignty crises or Russian/Chinese moves, odds remain firmly against military action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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