Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 2026 pivot from military threats and tariffs—escalated amid acquisition talks—to a diplomatic framework announced at Davos, explicitly ruling out force. Recent U.S. pushes for three new military bases via secret negotiations with Denmark, building on the existing Thule Air Base, signal expanded access through alliances rather than aggression, amid NATO discussions and bipartisan Senate outreach to Greenlanders. Danish and European reinforcements underscore deterrence, while no verified troop mobilizations or invasion preparations have emerged in the past 30 days, rendering military action a high-barrier scenario barring unforeseen escalations like failed talks or Arctic territorial disputes with Russia or China.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$1,266,587 Vol.
$1,266,587 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$1,266,587 Vol.
$1,266,587 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 2026 pivot from military threats and tariffs—escalated amid acquisition talks—to a diplomatic framework announced at Davos, explicitly ruling out force. Recent U.S. pushes for three new military bases via secret negotiations with Denmark, building on the existing Thule Air Base, signal expanded access through alliances rather than aggression, amid NATO discussions and bipartisan Senate outreach to Greenlanders. Danish and European reinforcements underscore deterrence, while no verified troop mobilizations or invasion preparations have emerged in the past 30 days, rendering military action a high-barrier scenario barring unforeseen escalations like failed talks or Arctic territorial disputes with Russia or China.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
音量
$1,266,587終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 2026 pivot from military threats and tariffs—escalated amid acquisition talks—to a diplomatic framework announced at Davos, explicitly ruling out force. Recent U.S. pushes for three new military bases via secret negotiations with Denmark, building on the existing Thule Air Base, signal expanded access through alliances rather than aggression, amid NATO discussions and bipartisan Senate outreach to Greenlanders. Danish and European reinforcements underscore deterrence, while no verified troop mobilizations or invasion preparations have emerged in the past 30 days, rendering military action a high-barrier scenario barring unforeseen escalations like failed talks or Arctic territorial disputes with Russia or China.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,266,587終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by President Trump's January 2026 pivot from military threats and tariffs—escalated amid acquisition talks—to a diplomatic framework announced at Davos, explicitly ruling out force. Recent U.S. pushes for three new military bases via secret negotiations with Denmark, building on the existing Thule Air Base, signal expanded access through alliances rather than aggression, amid NATO discussions and bipartisan Senate outreach to Greenlanders. Danish and European reinforcements underscore deterrence, while no verified troop mobilizations or invasion preparations have emerged in the past 30 days, rendering military action a high-barrier scenario barring unforeseen escalations like failed talks or Arctic territorial disputes with Russia or China.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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