Trader consensus reflects an 85.3% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's entrenched stability under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), despite external pressures. Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and Israel's subsequent October 26 airstrikes on military sites inside Iran demonstrated regime resilience, with no internal fractures or uprisings materializing. Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, promotes democratic transition from abroad but commands negligible domestic support, lacking organized opposition, military alliances, or pathways to power amid ongoing protest suppressions. Structural barriers, including constitutional prohibitions on monarchy and IRGC dominance, reinforce trader skepticism absent a major collapse.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$823,104 Vol.
$823,104 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$823,104 Vol.
$823,104 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects an 85.3% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's entrenched stability under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), despite external pressures. Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and Israel's subsequent October 26 airstrikes on military sites inside Iran demonstrated regime resilience, with no internal fractures or uprisings materializing. Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, promotes democratic transition from abroad but commands negligible domestic support, lacking organized opposition, military alliances, or pathways to power amid ongoing protest suppressions. Structural barriers, including constitutional prohibitions on monarchy and IRGC dominance, reinforce trader skepticism absent a major collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
音量
$823,104終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects an 85.3% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's entrenched stability under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), despite external pressures. Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and Israel's subsequent October 26 airstrikes on military sites inside Iran demonstrated regime resilience, with no internal fractures or uprisings materializing. Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, promotes democratic transition from abroad but commands negligible domestic support, lacking organized opposition, military alliances, or pathways to power amid ongoing protest suppressions. Structural barriers, including constitutional prohibitions on monarchy and IRGC dominance, reinforce trader skepticism absent a major collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$823,104終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 85.3% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's entrenched stability under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), despite external pressures. Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and Israel's subsequent October 26 airstrikes on military sites inside Iran demonstrated regime resilience, with no internal fractures or uprisings materializing. Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, promotes democratic transition from abroad but commands negligible domestic support, lacking organized opposition, military alliances, or pathways to power amid ongoing protest suppressions. Structural barriers, including constitutional prohibitions on monarchy and IRGC dominance, reinforce trader skepticism absent a major collapse.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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