Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors US Representative Ilhan Omar not resigning by March 31, with "No" shares implying 99.6% probability, driven by her decisive November 2024 reelection victory in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District—a reliably Democratic stronghold—and the absence of any official statements, ethics probes, or scandals warranting departure. Recent primary defeat of challenger Don Samuels solidified her position ahead of the new Congress convening in January. No primary sources indicate intent to step down, reflecting traders' assessment of low political risk. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen health issues, legal developments, or internal Democratic caucus pressure, though evidence points to continuity through quarter's end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$1,614,472 Vol.
$1,614,472 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$1,614,472 Vol.
$1,614,472 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 28, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
音量
$1,614,472終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 28, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign or will not run for re-election. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$1,614,472終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 28, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors US Representative Ilhan Omar not resigning by March 31, with "No" shares implying 99.6% probability, driven by her decisive November 2024 reelection victory in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District—a reliably Democratic stronghold—and the absence of any official statements, ethics probes, or scandals warranting departure. Recent primary defeat of challenger Don Samuels solidified her position ahead of the new Congress convening in January. No primary sources indicate intent to step down, reflecting traders' assessment of low political risk. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen health issues, legal developments, or internal Democratic caucus pressure, though evidence points to continuity through quarter's end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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