A recent U.S. intelligence assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, released March 18, 2026, concludes that China is unlikely to attempt a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2027, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing economic challenges and PLA readiness issues, driving the 87.5% "No" trader consensus on Polymarket. Beijing continues gray-zone tactics like military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and vows to "crack down" on independence, but shows no concrete invasion preparations despite capability buildup. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan provoke diplomatic protests without escalation, while deterrence from allies including Japan reinforces the low-risk outlook through June 2027, though rapid shifts in cross-strait tensions remain possible.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
$11,928 Vol.
新規
$11,928 Vol.
2027/06/30
新規
$11,928 Vol.
新規
$11,928 Vol.
2027/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.A recent U.S. intelligence assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, released March 18, 2026, concludes that China is unlikely to attempt a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2027, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing economic challenges and PLA readiness issues, driving the 87.5% "No" trader consensus on Polymarket. Beijing continues gray-zone tactics like military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and vows to "crack down" on independence, but shows no concrete invasion preparations despite capability buildup. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan provoke diplomatic protests without escalation, while deterrence from allies including Japan reinforces the low-risk outlook through June 2027, though rapid shifts in cross-strait tensions remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
音量
$11,928終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.A recent U.S. intelligence assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, released March 18, 2026, concludes that China is unlikely to attempt a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2027, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing economic challenges and PLA readiness issues, driving the 87.5% "No" trader consensus on Polymarket. Beijing continues gray-zone tactics like military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and vows to "crack down" on independence, but shows no concrete invasion preparations despite capability buildup. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan provoke diplomatic protests without escalation, while deterrence from allies including Japan reinforces the low-risk outlook through June 2027, though rapid shifts in cross-strait tensions remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$11,928終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A recent U.S. intelligence assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, released March 18, 2026, concludes that China is unlikely to attempt a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2027, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing economic challenges and PLA readiness issues, driving the 87.5% "No" trader consensus on Polymarket. Beijing continues gray-zone tactics like military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and vows to "crack down" on independence, but shows no concrete invasion preparations despite capability buildup. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan provoke diplomatic protests without escalation, while deterrence from allies including Japan reinforces the low-risk outlook through June 2027, though rapid shifts in cross-strait tensions remain possible.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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