Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91% to retain Wisconsin's 2nd Congressional District, driven by its deep-blue partisan lean encompassing Madison and Dane County, where incumbent Rep. Mark Pocan has won general elections with 71-75% margins in recent cycles. No credible Republican challenger has emerged ahead of the August 11 primaries, reinforcing the seat's solid Democratic hold per historical base rates for high-PVI districts. Absent late-breaking developments like a high-profile GOP recruit, Pocan primary upset, personal scandal, or national Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout, the structural advantages sustain this commanding position through election day on November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
91%
共和党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
91%
共和党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91% to retain Wisconsin's 2nd Congressional District, driven by its deep-blue partisan lean encompassing Madison and Dane County, where incumbent Rep. Mark Pocan has won general elections with 71-75% margins in recent cycles. No credible Republican challenger has emerged ahead of the August 11 primaries, reinforcing the seat's solid Democratic hold per historical base rates for high-PVI districts. Absent late-breaking developments like a high-profile GOP recruit, Pocan primary upset, personal scandal, or national Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout, the structural advantages sustain this commanding position through election day on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91% to retain Wisconsin's 2nd Congressional District, driven by its deep-blue partisan lean encompassing Madison and Dane County, where incumbent Rep. Mark Pocan has won general elections with 71-75% margins in recent cycles. No credible Republican challenger has emerged ahead of the August 11 primaries, reinforcing the seat's solid Democratic hold per historical base rates for high-PVI districts. Absent late-breaking developments like a high-profile GOP recruit, Pocan primary upset, personal scandal, or national Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout, the structural advantages sustain this commanding position through election day on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91% to retain Wisconsin's 2nd Congressional District, driven by its deep-blue partisan lean encompassing Madison and Dane County, where incumbent Rep. Mark Pocan has won general elections with 71-75% margins in recent cycles. No credible Republican challenger has emerged ahead of the August 11 primaries, reinforcing the seat's solid Democratic hold per historical base rates for high-PVI districts. Absent late-breaking developments like a high-profile GOP recruit, Pocan primary upset, personal scandal, or national Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout, the structural advantages sustain this commanding position through election day on November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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