The UN Secretary-General selection process for the post succeeding António Guterres' term ending December 31, 2026, remains opaque and consensus-driven by the P5 permanent Security Council members—US, Russia, China, UK, France—keeping trader odds tightly clustered among top contenders like Amina Mohammed, Rebeca Grynspan, Rafael Grossi, and Mia Mottley. Recent media speculation and informal campaigning in late 2024 have elevated these figures due to their diplomatic credentials—Mohammed's deputy role, Grossi's IAEA crisis management, Mottley's climate advocacy—but no endorsements or straw polls have emerged to consolidate support. Regional rotation favoring Eastern Europe and gender parity pressures add uncertainty, with nominations expected mid-2026 ahead of General Assembly vote; P5 veto threats or surprise candidacies could swiftly separate leaders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日マリア・フェルナンダ・エスピノサ・ガルセス 29.0%
ジャシンダ・アーダーン 27.7%
ミシェル・バチェレ 13%
クリスタリナ・ゲオルギエヴァ 4.0%
$365 Vol.
$365 Vol.
マリア・フェルナンダ・エスピノサ・ガルセス
29%
ジャシンダ・アーダーン
28%
ミシェル・バチェレ
13%
クリスタリナ・ゲオルギエヴァ
24%
デビッド・チョケワンカ
2%
ヴク・イェレミッチ
2%
コロンブ・カーン＝サルヴァドール
2%
アヒム・シュタイナー
1%
アリシア・バルセナ
7%
レベッカ・グリンシュパン
40%
ブルーノ・ドナート
28%
ミア・モットリー
38%
ラファエル・グロッシ
38%
アミーナ・モハメッド
43%
マリア・フェルナンダ・エスピノサ・ガルセス 29.0%
ジャシンダ・アーダーン 27.7%
ミシェル・バチェレ 13%
クリスタリナ・ゲオルギエヴァ 4.0%
$365 Vol.
$365 Vol.
マリア・フェルナンダ・エスピノサ・ガルセス
29%
ジャシンダ・アーダーン
28%
ミシェル・バチェレ
13%
クリスタリナ・ゲオルギエヴァ
24%
デビッド・チョケワンカ
2%
ヴク・イェレミッチ
2%
コロンブ・カーン＝サルヴァドール
2%
アヒム・シュタイナー
1%
アリシア・バルセナ
7%
レベッカ・グリンシュパン
40%
ブルーノ・ドナート
28%
ミア・モットリー
38%
ラファエル・グロッシ
38%
アミーナ・モハメッド
43%
This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.
If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 11, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.
If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The UN Secretary-General selection process for the post succeeding António Guterres' term ending December 31, 2026, remains opaque and consensus-driven by the P5 permanent Security Council members—US, Russia, China, UK, France—keeping trader odds tightly clustered among top contenders like Amina Mohammed, Rebeca Grynspan, Rafael Grossi, and Mia Mottley. Recent media speculation and informal campaigning in late 2024 have elevated these figures due to their diplomatic credentials—Mohammed's deputy role, Grossi's IAEA crisis management, Mottley's climate advocacy—but no endorsements or straw polls have emerged to consolidate support. Regional rotation favoring Eastern Europe and gender parity pressures add uncertainty, with nominations expected mid-2026 ahead of General Assembly vote; P5 veto threats or surprise candidacies could swiftly separate leaders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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