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政治·国連

次期国連事務総長は誰になるのか？

Market icon
政治·国連

次期国連事務総長は誰になるのか？

レベッカ・グリンシュパン 40.3%

マリア・フェルナンダ・エスピノサ・ガルセス 29.0%

ジャシンダ・アーダーン 27.7%

ミシェル・バチェレ 22%

Polymarket

$365 Vol.

レベッカ・グリンシュパン 40.3%

マリア・フェルナンダ・エスピノサ・ガルセス 29.0%

ジャシンダ・アーダーン 27.7%

ミシェル・バチェレ 22%

Polymarket

$365 Vol.

レベッカ・グリンシュパン

$0 Vol.

40%

マリア・フェルナンダ・エスピノサ・ガルセス

$365 Vol.

29%

ジャシンダ・アーダーン

$0 Vol.

28%

ミシェル・バチェレ

$0 Vol.

22%

クリスタリナ・ゲオルギエヴァ

$0 Vol.

24%

デビッド・チョケワンカ

$0 Vol.

2%

ヴク・イェレミッチ

$0 Vol.

2%

コロンブ・カーン＝サルヴァドール

$0 Vol.

2%

アヒム・シュタイナー

$0 Vol.

1%

アリシア・バルセナ

$0 Vol.

7%

ブルーノ・ドナート

$0 Vol.

30%

ミア・モットリー

$0 Vol.

38%

ラファエル・グロッシ

$0 Vol.

39%

アミーナ・モハメッド

$0 Vol.

41%

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the next UN Secretary-General reflects a fragmented early-stage race, with Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed leading narrowly at 43% due to her extensive internal UN experience and African regional backing, closely trailed by recently nominated UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan (40.3%) and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi (39%). Recent developments, including Costa Rica's March 3 nomination of Grynspan and Argentina's earlier endorsement of Grossi amid his high-profile nuclear diplomacy, have bolstered their bids without creating separation. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley (37.8%) gains from climate advocacy, keeping the field competitive. The contest stays tight absent P5 endorsements, regional group consensus, or initial Security Council straw polls expected by mid-2026, with calls for the first female appointee adding uncertainty.

Trader consensus on the next UN Secretary-General reflects a fragmented early-stage race, with Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed leading narrowly at 43% due to her extensive internal UN experience and African regional backing, closely trailed by recently nominated UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan (40.3%) and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi (39%). Recent developments, including Costa Rica's March 3 nomination of Grynspan and Argentina's earlier endorsement of Grossi amid his high-profile nuclear diplomacy, have bolstered their bids without creating separation. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley (37.8%) gains from climate advocacy, keeping the field competitive. The contest stays tight absent P5 endorsements, regional group consensus, or initial Security Council straw polls expected by mid-2026, with calls for the first female appointee adding uncertainty.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the next UN Secretary-General reflects a fragmented early-stage race, with Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed leading narrowly at 43% due to her extensive internal UN experience and African regional backing, closely trailed by recently nominated UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan (40.3%) and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi (39%). Recent developments, including Costa Rica's March 3 nomination of Grynspan and Argentina's earlier endorsement of Grossi amid his high-profile nuclear diplomacy, have bolstered their bids without creating separation. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley (37.8%) gains from climate advocacy, keeping the field competitive. The contest stays tight absent P5 endorsements, regional group consensus, or initial Security Council straw polls expected by mid-2026, with calls for the first female appointee adding uncertainty.

Trader consensus on the next UN Secretary-General reflects a fragmented early-stage race, with Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed leading narrowly at 43% due to her extensive internal UN experience and African regional backing, closely trailed by recently nominated UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan (40.3%) and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi (39%). Recent developments, including Costa Rica's March 3 nomination of Grynspan and Argentina's earlier endorsement of Grossi amid his high-profile nuclear diplomacy, have bolstered their bids without creating separation. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley (37.8%) gains from climate advocacy, keeping the field competitive. The contest stays tight absent P5 endorsements, regional group consensus, or initial Security Council straw polls expected by mid-2026, with calls for the first female appointee adding uncertainty.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「次期国連事務総長は誰になるのか？」はPolymarket上の14個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「アミーナ・モハメッド」で41%、次いで「レベッカ・グリンシュパン」が40%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、41¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に41%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「次期国連事務総長は誰になるのか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Dec 12, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「次期国連事務総長は誰になるのか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている14個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「次期国連事務総長は誰になるのか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「アミーナ・モハメッド」で41%であり、市場がこの結果に41%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「レベッカ・グリンシュパン」で40%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「次期国連事務総長は誰になるのか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。