Tensions between Israel and Iran persist after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, retaliating for Tehran's missile attack earlier that month—the last direct action against Iran proper. In the past 30 days, Israel has escalated strikes on Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Syria, while U.S. forces targeted Houthi sites in Yemen backed by Iran, without crossing into Iranian territory. IAEA reports highlight Iran's advancing nuclear program, prompting diplomatic warnings from the U.S. and Europe. With Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration looming, traders eye potential U.S. policy shifts toward maximum pressure sanctions or support for Israeli operations, alongside risks of Iranian retaliation via proxies amid stalled Gaza ceasefire talks. No confirmed plans for strikes by March 31, but escalation signals from Tehran and Jerusalem could tip balances.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,238,324 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
サウジアラビア
11%
UAE
7%
カタール
4%
バーレーン
3%
クウェート
2%
いずれかのEU加盟国
2%
英国
1%
ヨルダン
1%
トルコ
1%
フランス
1%
オマーン
1%
ドイツ
<1%
カナダ
<1%
$10,238,324 Vol.
サウジアラビア
$2,048,427 Vol.
11%
UAE
$2,538,916 Vol.
7%
カタール
$928,564 Vol.
4%
バーレーン
$386,631 Vol.
3%
クウェート
$207,593 Vol.
2%
いずれかのEU加盟国
$453,475 Vol.
2%
英国
$932,898 Vol.
1%
ヨルダン
$183,124 Vol.
1%
トルコ
$469,951 Vol.
1%
フランス
$722,115 Vol.
1%
オマーン
$128,149 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$905,130 Vol.
<1%
カナダ
$333,350 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Iran persist after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, retaliating for Tehran's missile attack earlier that month—the last direct action against Iran proper. In the past 30 days, Israel has escalated strikes on Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Syria, while U.S. forces targeted Houthi sites in Yemen backed by Iran, without crossing into Iranian territory. IAEA reports highlight Iran's advancing nuclear program, prompting diplomatic warnings from the U.S. and Europe. With Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration looming, traders eye potential U.S. policy shifts toward maximum pressure sanctions or support for Israeli operations, alongside risks of Iranian retaliation via proxies amid stalled Gaza ceasefire talks. No confirmed plans for strikes by March 31, but escalation signals from Tehran and Jerusalem could tip balances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
音量
$10,238,324終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Iran persist after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, retaliating for Tehran's missile attack earlier that month—the last direct action against Iran proper. In the past 30 days, Israel has escalated strikes on Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Syria, while U.S. forces targeted Houthi sites in Yemen backed by Iran, without crossing into Iranian territory. IAEA reports highlight Iran's advancing nuclear program, prompting diplomatic warnings from the U.S. and Europe. With Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration looming, traders eye potential U.S. policy shifts toward maximum pressure sanctions or support for Israeli operations, alongside risks of Iranian retaliation via proxies amid stalled Gaza ceasefire talks. No confirmed plans for strikes by March 31, but escalation signals from Tehran and Jerusalem could tip balances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,238,324終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Israel and Iran persist after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, retaliating for Tehran's missile attack earlier that month—the last direct action against Iran proper. In the past 30 days, Israel has escalated strikes on Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Syria, while U.S. forces targeted Houthi sites in Yemen backed by Iran, without crossing into Iranian territory. IAEA reports highlight Iran's advancing nuclear program, prompting diplomatic warnings from the U.S. and Europe. With Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration looming, traders eye potential U.S. policy shifts toward maximum pressure sanctions or support for Israeli operations, alongside risks of Iranian retaliation via proxies amid stalled Gaza ceasefire talks. No confirmed plans for strikes by March 31, but escalation signals from Tehran and Jerusalem could tip balances.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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