US and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, marking the start of open conflict that continues with over 600 IDF strikes reported by March 24. Escalation intensified on March 28 when Iran struck a Saudi air base, injuring 12 US troops, drawing vows from Israel to "intensify and expand" attacks and US warnings of thousands more targets amid Strait of Hormuz tensions—Trump extended a related deadline to April 6. UK, France, and Germany announced potential strikes on Iranian missile sites if attacks persist; Saudi Arabia and UAE signal readiness to join amid threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. With the March 31 cutoff imminent, traders weigh rapid diplomatic shifts or further Iranian provocations tipping additional countries into action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,267,253 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
サウジアラビア
9%
UAE
6%
カタール
4%
バーレーン
2%
クウェート
2%
いずれかのEU加盟国
1%
英国
1%
ヨルダン
1%
トルコ
1%
フランス
1%
オマーン
1%
ドイツ
<1%
カナダ
<1%
$10,267,253 Vol.
サウジアラビア
$2,068,366 Vol.
9%
UAE
$2,542,295 Vol.
6%
カタール
$929,029 Vol.
4%
バーレーン
$386,952 Vol.
2%
クウェート
$208,348 Vol.
2%
いずれかのEU加盟国
$453,495 Vol.
1%
英国
$933,515 Vol.
1%
ヨルダン
$184,755 Vol.
1%
トルコ
$470,216 Vol.
1%
フランス
$722,535 Vol.
1%
オマーン
$128,245 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$906,051 Vol.
<1%
カナダ
$333,451 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, marking the start of open conflict that continues with over 600 IDF strikes reported by March 24. Escalation intensified on March 28 when Iran struck a Saudi air base, injuring 12 US troops, drawing vows from Israel to "intensify and expand" attacks and US warnings of thousands more targets amid Strait of Hormuz tensions—Trump extended a related deadline to April 6. UK, France, and Germany announced potential strikes on Iranian missile sites if attacks persist; Saudi Arabia and UAE signal readiness to join amid threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. With the March 31 cutoff imminent, traders weigh rapid diplomatic shifts or further Iranian provocations tipping additional countries into action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
音量
$10,267,253終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, marking the start of open conflict that continues with over 600 IDF strikes reported by March 24. Escalation intensified on March 28 when Iran struck a Saudi air base, injuring 12 US troops, drawing vows from Israel to "intensify and expand" attacks and US warnings of thousands more targets amid Strait of Hormuz tensions—Trump extended a related deadline to April 6. UK, France, and Germany announced potential strikes on Iranian missile sites if attacks persist; Saudi Arabia and UAE signal readiness to join amid threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. With the March 31 cutoff imminent, traders weigh rapid diplomatic shifts or further Iranian provocations tipping additional countries into action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,267,253終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, marking the start of open conflict that continues with over 600 IDF strikes reported by March 24. Escalation intensified on March 28 when Iran struck a Saudi air base, injuring 12 US troops, drawing vows from Israel to "intensify and expand" attacks and US warnings of thousands more targets amid Strait of Hormuz tensions—Trump extended a related deadline to April 6. UK, France, and Germany announced potential strikes on Iranian missile sites if attacks persist; Saudi Arabia and UAE signal readiness to join amid threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. With the March 31 cutoff imminent, traders weigh rapid diplomatic shifts or further Iranian provocations tipping additional countries into action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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