Trader consensus on Polymarket prices SpaceX's IPO valuation in a tight race between $1.50-1.75 trillion (32%) and $1.75-2.00 trillion (31%), reflecting yesterday's confidential SEC filing targeting around $1.75 trillion—up from $1.25 trillion post-xAI merger and $800 billion in late-2025 tender offers. Surging Starlink revenue, estimated at $16 billion for 2025 with robust EBITDA margins, and launch cadence dominance underpin the premium, while Starship milestones and AI synergies via xAI add upside potential. Key swing factors include mid-June pricing amid volatile equity markets, regulatory hurdles for Starlink expansion, and competitive pressures from Blue Origin and Rocket Lab; final market cap will hinge on institutional demand during the Project Apex roadshow with 21 banks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日1.50～1.75兆 32%
1.75～2.00兆 31%
2.00〜2.25兆 14%
1.25〜1.50兆 8.9%
$91,060 Vol.
$91,060 Vol.
1.25兆未満
5%
1.25〜1.50兆
9%
1.50～1.75兆
32%
1.75～2.00兆
31%
2.00〜2.25兆
14%
2.25兆〜2.50兆
9%
2.50兆ドル以上
6%
1.50～1.75兆 32%
1.75～2.00兆 31%
2.00〜2.25兆 14%
1.25〜1.50兆 8.9%
$91,060 Vol.
$91,060 Vol.
1.25兆未満
$54,069 Vol.
5%
1.25〜1.50兆
$9,459 Vol.
9%
1.50～1.75兆
$5,194 Vol.
32%
1.75～2.00兆
$4,620 Vol.
31%
2.00〜2.25兆
$3,768 Vol.
14%
2.25兆〜2.50兆
$6,920 Vol.
9%
2.50兆ドル以上
$7,030 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices SpaceX's IPO valuation in a tight race between $1.50-1.75 trillion (32%) and $1.75-2.00 trillion (31%), reflecting yesterday's confidential SEC filing targeting around $1.75 trillion—up from $1.25 trillion post-xAI merger and $800 billion in late-2025 tender offers. Surging Starlink revenue, estimated at $16 billion for 2025 with robust EBITDA margins, and launch cadence dominance underpin the premium, while Starship milestones and AI synergies via xAI add upside potential. Key swing factors include mid-June pricing amid volatile equity markets, regulatory hurdles for Starlink expansion, and competitive pressures from Blue Origin and Rocket Lab; final market cap will hinge on institutional demand during the Project Apex roadshow with 21 banks.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
音量
$91,060マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices SpaceX's IPO valuation in a tight race between $1.50-1.75 trillion (32%) and $1.75-2.00 trillion (31%), reflecting yesterday's confidential SEC filing targeting around $1.75 trillion—up from $1.25 trillion post-xAI merger and $800 billion in late-2025 tender offers. Surging Starlink revenue, estimated at $16 billion for 2025 with robust EBITDA margins, and launch cadence dominance underpin the premium, while Starship milestones and AI synergies via xAI add upside potential. Key swing factors include mid-June pricing amid volatile equity markets, regulatory hurdles for Starlink expansion, and competitive pressures from Blue Origin and Rocket Lab; final market cap will hinge on institutional demand during the Project Apex roadshow with 21 banks.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$91,060マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices SpaceX's IPO valuation in a tight race between $1.50-1.75 trillion (32%) and $1.75-2.00 trillion (31%), reflecting yesterday's confidential SEC filing targeting around $1.75 trillion—up from $1.25 trillion post-xAI merger and $800 billion in late-2025 tender offers. Surging Starlink revenue, estimated at $16 billion for 2025 with robust EBITDA margins, and launch cadence dominance underpin the premium, while Starship milestones and AI synergies via xAI add upside potential. Key swing factors include mid-June pricing amid volatile equity markets, regulatory hurdles for Starlink expansion, and competitive pressures from Blue Origin and Rocket Lab; final market cap will hinge on institutional demand during the Project Apex roadshow with 21 banks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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