Tensions between the US and Iran persist amid proxy conflicts and regional escalations, with no direct military engagement necessitating a formal ceasefire. The most recent major development was the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on November 27, 2024, which Iran welcomed despite backing the militant group, signaling potential de-escalation in Lebanon but leaving Gaza truce talks stalled. Incoming President Trump's "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including tightened sanctions and threats of military action, contrasts with Biden-era diplomacy, heightening uncertainty. Key upcoming events include Gaza negotiations and possible Iranian responses to Israeli strikes, which could either ease or intensify pressures without resolving core US-Iran disputes like nuclear ambitions and support for militias.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$54,760,979 Vol.
3月31日
3%
4月7日
13%
4月15日
24%
4月30日
40%
5月31日
53%
6月30日
61%
12月31日
76%
$54,760,979 Vol.
3月31日
$34,483,341 Vol.
3%
4月7日
$746,542 Vol.
13%
4月15日
$5,247,275 Vol.
24%
4月30日
$6,013,484 Vol.
40%
5月31日
$2,125,217 Vol.
53%
6月30日
$2,209,453 Vol.
61%
12月31日
$448,443 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Tensions between the US and Iran persist amid proxy conflicts and regional escalations, with no direct military engagement necessitating a formal ceasefire. The most recent major development was the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on November 27, 2024, which Iran welcomed despite backing the militant group, signaling potential de-escalation in Lebanon but leaving Gaza truce talks stalled. Incoming President Trump's "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including tightened sanctions and threats of military action, contrasts with Biden-era diplomacy, heightening uncertainty. Key upcoming events include Gaza negotiations and possible Iranian responses to Israeli strikes, which could either ease or intensify pressures without resolving core US-Iran disputes like nuclear ambitions and support for militias.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
音量
$54,760,979マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Tensions between the US and Iran persist amid proxy conflicts and regional escalations, with no direct military engagement necessitating a formal ceasefire. The most recent major development was the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on November 27, 2024, which Iran welcomed despite backing the militant group, signaling potential de-escalation in Lebanon but leaving Gaza truce talks stalled. Incoming President Trump's "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including tightened sanctions and threats of military action, contrasts with Biden-era diplomacy, heightening uncertainty. Key upcoming events include Gaza negotiations and possible Iranian responses to Israeli strikes, which could either ease or intensify pressures without resolving core US-Iran disputes like nuclear ambitions and support for militias.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$54,760,979マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the US and Iran persist amid proxy conflicts and regional escalations, with no direct military engagement necessitating a formal ceasefire. The most recent major development was the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on November 27, 2024, which Iran welcomed despite backing the militant group, signaling potential de-escalation in Lebanon but leaving Gaza truce talks stalled. Incoming President Trump's "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including tightened sanctions and threats of military action, contrasts with Biden-era diplomacy, heightening uncertainty. Key upcoming events include Gaza negotiations and possible Iranian responses to Israeli strikes, which could either ease or intensify pressures without resolving core US-Iran disputes like nuclear ambitions and support for militias.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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