Trader consensus favoring "No" at 84.5% stems from the absence of U.S. military announcements or operational signals indicating plans to seize an oil tanker by March 31, amid restrained responses to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. Recent U.S. actions have focused on airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen and participation in Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial vessels, rather than offensive boardings or seizures. No confirmed prior U.S. seizure of an Iranian- or Houthi-linked tanker has occurred recently to prompt "another," with emphasis instead on sanctions against shadow fleets and diplomatic pressure on Iran. Upcoming CENTCOM briefings show no escalation catalysts, reinforcing low probability of such a kinetic move before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$70,624 Vol.
$70,624 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$70,624 Vol.
$70,624 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 18, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
音量
$70,624終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 18, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$70,624終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 18, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 84.5% stems from the absence of U.S. military announcements or operational signals indicating plans to seize an oil tanker by March 31, amid restrained responses to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. Recent U.S. actions have focused on airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen and participation in Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial vessels, rather than offensive boardings or seizures. No confirmed prior U.S. seizure of an Iranian- or Houthi-linked tanker has occurred recently to prompt "another," with emphasis instead on sanctions against shadow fleets and diplomatic pressure on Iran. Upcoming CENTCOM briefings show no escalation catalysts, reinforcing low probability of such a kinetic move before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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