Ukraine has escalated long-range drone strikes targeting Moscow, launching waves of over 250 drones intercepted by Russian air defenses around March 15-16 in one of the largest assaults on the capital to date, followed by nearly 400 more downed on March 25 amid attacks reaching Leningrad Oblast and sparking fires at a Russian port. Russia retaliated with its biggest aerial barrage yet, firing nearly 1,000 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities like Lviv on March 24, killing civilians and testing Kyiv's defenses. These mutual escalations underscore Ukraine's advancing strike capabilities deep into Russia, though Moscow reports no confirmed impacts in the city center, with trader consensus weighing interception success rates, drone production limits, and potential breakthroughs before any market resolution date. Ongoing hostilities and aid flows could tip the balance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$136,614 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
3月31日
4%
4月15日
10%
4月30日
18%
$136,614 Vol.
3月31日
$20,496 Vol.
4%
4月15日
$46 Vol.
10%
4月30日
$0 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ukraine has escalated long-range drone strikes targeting Moscow, launching waves of over 250 drones intercepted by Russian air defenses around March 15-16 in one of the largest assaults on the capital to date, followed by nearly 400 more downed on March 25 amid attacks reaching Leningrad Oblast and sparking fires at a Russian port. Russia retaliated with its biggest aerial barrage yet, firing nearly 1,000 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities like Lviv on March 24, killing civilians and testing Kyiv's defenses. These mutual escalations underscore Ukraine's advancing strike capabilities deep into Russia, though Moscow reports no confirmed impacts in the city center, with trader consensus weighing interception success rates, drone production limits, and potential breakthroughs before any market resolution date. Ongoing hostilities and aid flows could tip the balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 11:00 AM ET
音量
$136,614終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 11:00 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ukraine has escalated long-range drone strikes targeting Moscow, launching waves of over 250 drones intercepted by Russian air defenses around March 15-16 in one of the largest assaults on the capital to date, followed by nearly 400 more downed on March 25 amid attacks reaching Leningrad Oblast and sparking fires at a Russian port. Russia retaliated with its biggest aerial barrage yet, firing nearly 1,000 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities like Lviv on March 24, killing civilians and testing Kyiv's defenses. These mutual escalations underscore Ukraine's advancing strike capabilities deep into Russia, though Moscow reports no confirmed impacts in the city center, with trader consensus weighing interception success rates, drone production limits, and potential breakthroughs before any market resolution date. Ongoing hostilities and aid flows could tip the balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$136,614終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 11:00 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine has escalated long-range drone strikes targeting Moscow, launching waves of over 250 drones intercepted by Russian air defenses around March 15-16 in one of the largest assaults on the capital to date, followed by nearly 400 more downed on March 25 amid attacks reaching Leningrad Oblast and sparking fires at a Russian port. Russia retaliated with its biggest aerial barrage yet, firing nearly 1,000 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities like Lviv on March 24, killing civilians and testing Kyiv's defenses. These mutual escalations underscore Ukraine's advancing strike capabilities deep into Russia, though Moscow reports no confirmed impacts in the city center, with trader consensus weighing interception success rates, drone production limits, and potential breakthroughs before any market resolution date. Ongoing hostilities and aid flows could tip the balance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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