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政治·プライマリ

TX -18民主党予備選

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政治·プライマリ

TX -18民主党予備選

クリスチャン・メネフィー 72.9%

アル・グリーン 25.4%

アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%

グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%

Polymarket
NEW

クリスチャン・メネフィー 72.9%

アル・グリーン 25.4%

アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%

グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%

Polymarket
NEW

クリスチャン・メネフィー

$0 Vol.

73%

アル・グリーン

$3,355 Vol.

25%

アマンダ・エドワーズ

$0 Vol.

<1%

グレッチェン・ブラウン

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 73% implied probability to win Texas' 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff against Al Green in May, driven by Menefee's momentum from topping the March 3 first-round ballot with 49% to Green's 43% amid a crowded field including Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown. A February Hobby School poll showed Menefee leading Green by 24 points among likely voters, bolstering his edge as the recent special election winner replacing Rep. Sylvester Turner after GOP redistricting pitted the two Democrats. Green's long incumbency since 2005 provides a base, but recent attacks on Menefee's voting record have not shifted odds, with the safely Democratic seat hinging on turnout in the Houston-area battleground primary.

Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 73% implied probability to win Texas' 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff against Al Green in May, driven by Menefee's momentum from topping the March 3 first-round ballot with 49% to Green's 43% amid a crowded field including Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown. A February Hobby School poll showed Menefee leading Green by 24 points among likely voters, bolstering his edge as the recent special election winner replacing Rep. Sylvester Turner after GOP redistricting pitted the two Democrats. Green's long incumbency since 2005 provides a base, but recent attacks on Menefee's voting record have not shifted odds, with the safely Democratic seat hinging on turnout in the Houston-area battleground primary.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 73% implied probability to win Texas' 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff against Al Green in May, driven by Menefee's momentum from topping the March 3 first-round ballot with 49% to Green's 43% amid a crowded field including Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown. A February Hobby School poll showed Menefee leading Green by 24 points among likely voters, bolstering his edge as the recent special election winner replacing Rep. Sylvester Turner after GOP redistricting pitted the two Democrats. Green's long incumbency since 2005 provides a base, but recent attacks on Menefee's voting record have not shifted odds, with the safely Democratic seat hinging on turnout in the Houston-area battleground primary.

Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 73% implied probability to win Texas' 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff against Al Green in May, driven by Menefee's momentum from topping the March 3 first-round ballot with 49% to Green's 43% amid a crowded field including Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown. A February Hobby School poll showed Menefee leading Green by 24 points among likely voters, bolstering his edge as the recent special election winner replacing Rep. Sylvester Turner after GOP redistricting pitted the two Democrats. Green's long incumbency since 2005 provides a base, but recent attacks on Menefee's voting record have not shifted odds, with the safely Democratic seat hinging on turnout in the Houston-area battleground primary.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「TX -18民主党予備選」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「クリスチャン・メネフィー」で73%、次いで「アル・グリーン」が25%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、73¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に73%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「TX -18民主党予備選」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Feb 4, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「TX -18民主党予備選」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「TX -18民主党予備選」の現在のフロントランナーは「クリスチャン・メネフィー」で73%であり、市場がこの結果に73%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「アル・グリーン」で25%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「TX -18民主党予備選」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。