Traders heavily favor 2.0–2.2 million votes in the Texas Republican Senate primary first round, reflecting robust early voting turnout that exceeded 2022 levels by over 20%, with more than 1.1 million GOP early ballots reported by the Texas Secretary of State through March 1. This surge, driven by strong participation in key urban counties like Harris and Dallas amid Ted Cruz's contested but lopsided race against minor challengers, positions the bin as the consensus outcome, implying election day additions of 800,000–1 million votes under favorable weather. Lower bins trail due to historical precedents capping at 2.1 million in high-enthusiasm cycles, though final tallies remain uncertain until polls close March 5.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日220万〜240万 6.5%
240万～260万 <1%
280万以上 <1%
200万人未満 <1%
$25,468 Vol.
$25,468 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
200万人未満
1%
200万〜220万
54%
220万〜240万
7%
240万～260万
1%
260万〜280万
<1%
280万以上
1%
220万〜240万 6.5%
240万～260万 <1%
280万以上 <1%
200万人未満 <1%
$25,468 Vol.
$25,468 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
200万人未満
$6,345 Vol.
1%
200万〜220万
$0 Vol.
54%
220万〜240万
$11,787 Vol.
7%
240万～260万
$4,042 Vol.
1%
260万〜280万
$0 Vol.
<1%
280万以上
$3,294 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
マーケット開始日： Feb 5, 2026, 7:13 PM ET
音量
$25,468終了日
Mar 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 5, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
音量
$25,468終了日
Mar 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 5, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders heavily favor 2.0–2.2 million votes in the Texas Republican Senate primary first round, reflecting robust early voting turnout that exceeded 2022 levels by over 20%, with more than 1.1 million GOP early ballots reported by the Texas Secretary of State through March 1. This surge, driven by strong participation in key urban counties like Harris and Dallas amid Ted Cruz's contested but lopsided race against minor challengers, positions the bin as the consensus outcome, implying election day additions of 800,000–1 million votes under favorable weather. Lower bins trail due to historical precedents capping at 2.1 million in high-enthusiasm cycles, though final tallies remain uncertain until polls close March 5.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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