Virginia voters approved the redistricting referendum constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026, special election by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin—3.4 percentage points—aligning precisely with trader consensus on a 3-6% pass victory and reflecting pre-election polls showing slim Yes leads around 52-47 amid high turnout exceeding 3 million ballots. Strong Democratic performance in Northern Virginia suburbs offset Republican strength in rural areas and Southside, consistent with 2025 gubernatorial results. The Supreme Court of Virginia's 4-3 ruling today nullifying the referendum for procedural flaws preserves current 6-5 Democratic congressional maps but leaves the recorded vote margin intact for market resolution. Late provisional ballot adjustments or rare recounts represent minimal remaining risks to this outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3〜6％で可決 100.0%
15%以上で可決 <1%
12〜15％で可決 <1%
9〜12％で可決 <1%
$646,908 Vol.
$646,908 Vol.
2026/04/21
15%以上で可決
いいえ
12〜15％で可決
いいえ
9〜12％で可決
いいえ
6〜9％で可決
いいえ
3〜6％で可決
はい
3％未満で可決
いいえ
否決
いいえ
3〜6％で可決 100.0%
15%以上で可決 <1%
12〜15％で可決 <1%
9〜12％で可決 <1%
$646,908 Vol.
$646,908 Vol.
2026/04/21
15%以上で可決
$17,389 Vol.
いいえ
12〜15％で可決
$22,315 Vol.
いいえ
9〜12％で可決
$45,358 Vol.
いいえ
6〜9％で可決
$84,095 Vol.
いいえ
3〜6％で可決
$258,160 Vol.
はい
3％未満で可決
$178,296 Vol.
いいえ
否決
$41,295 Vol.
いいえ
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Virginia voters approved the redistricting referendum constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026, special election by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin—3.4 percentage points—aligning precisely with trader consensus on a 3-6% pass victory and reflecting pre-election polls showing slim Yes leads around 52-47 amid high turnout exceeding 3 million ballots. Strong Democratic performance in Northern Virginia suburbs offset Republican strength in rural areas and Southside, consistent with 2025 gubernatorial results. The Supreme Court of Virginia's 4-3 ruling today nullifying the referendum for procedural flaws preserves current 6-5 Democratic congressional maps but leaves the recorded vote margin intact for market resolution. Late provisional ballot adjustments or rare recounts represent minimal remaining risks to this outcome.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
音量
$646,908終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Virginia voters approved the redistricting referendum constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026, special election by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin—3.4 percentage points—aligning precisely with trader consensus on a 3-6% pass victory and reflecting pre-election polls showing slim Yes leads around 52-47 amid high turnout exceeding 3 million ballots. Strong Democratic performance in Northern Virginia suburbs offset Republican strength in rural areas and Southside, consistent with 2025 gubernatorial results. The Supreme Court of Virginia's 4-3 ruling today nullifying the referendum for procedural flaws preserves current 6-5 Democratic congressional maps but leaves the recorded vote margin intact for market resolution. Late provisional ballot adjustments or rare recounts represent minimal remaining risks to this outcome.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
音量
$646,908終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Virginia voters approved the redistricting referendum constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026, special election by a 51.7% to 48.3% margin—3.4 percentage points—aligning precisely with trader consensus on a 3-6% pass victory and reflecting pre-election polls showing slim Yes leads around 52-47 amid high turnout exceeding 3 million ballots. Strong Democratic performance in Northern Virginia suburbs offset Republican strength in rural areas and Southside, consistent with 2025 gubernatorial results. The Supreme Court of Virginia's 4-3 ruling today nullifying the referendum for procedural flaws preserves current 6-5 Democratic congressional maps but leaves the recorded vote margin intact for market resolution. Late provisional ballot adjustments or rare recounts represent minimal remaining risks to this outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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